Well, obviously, 2008 is drawing to a close quickly. It seems like just yesterday we were all worried about Y2K issues and such, and here we are almost a decade into the new millennium! How can it be? Well, it’s true, so no need to dwell on how fast time flies. With the end of 2008, though, it’s time to take a look at the coming year, and see what things might happen if we speculate about possibilities for the year.
2009 promises to be a banner year in many respects. Of course, the United States will get a new President, and for the first time, a person of color will serve as the President of the United States. I hope for the very best for President Obama, but I also think that the sailing ahead will not be smooth. There are dramatic challenges for the new President to face, and we should all wish him luck on the road ahead. It won’t be easy, I think we can all be certain of that. However, this site doesn’t focus on the United States, and politics there, we focus on the Philippines. Of course, many of President Obama’s actions will affect the Philippines, but let’s mainly focus on Philippine issues and predictions of what might happen in the Philippines in 2009.
So, without further fanfare, I’d like to make 10 Predictions for 2009 in the Philippines. Some of these events may take years to actually be completed, but I believe that it is possible we will see steps toward this starting in 2009.
- Terrorism. Unfortunately, I feel that the Philippines is overdue for a serious terrorist event. I have a feeling that we will see something in this area in 2009. Over the past decade or more, there have been a number of serious threats that have been thwarted by the Philippines Government, this year things might not be so lucky. I am not talking about a hand grenade thrown at a bus terminal where people are injured. I feel that the Philippines is overdue for a serious attack that will leave at least 100 people dead. Most likely, an event like this would happen in Manila or somewhere in Mindanao, my feeling is Manila, because it is a more target rich place. I hope that I am incorrect on this, but I think that the odds are in favor of some kind of attack like this impacting the Philippines.
- Charter Change. The Philippines is gearing up to be a real battle ground in the fight to change the Constitution in 2009. Elections are scheduled to take place in 2010, and a lot of politicians who are facing term limits would love to change the constitution to allow for either longer terms in office, or additional terms. However, the public is strongly opposed to Charter Change, and a battle is looming on this front. A lot of indicators are showing that many politicians are targeting 2009 as the year to put all of this up for a vote. The public won’t stand for it, though, and this could lead to political unrest. If the politicians push this too far, it could even lead to another EDSA style action by the people. Keep a close eye on this one.
- Presidential Politics. As I said in #2 above, 2010 is election year in the Philippines. A lot of people are surprised that Gloria Arroyo as remained this long as President (I predict, BTW, that she will hold onto power until her term ends in 2010), and in 2009 the race for President in 2010 will start to clarify. My prediction here is that if the Charter Change movement plays out as it seems to be looking, a lot of politicians will be exposed for who they really are, and that may damage Presidential hopes for a number of these people. My feeling is that some non-traditional people will emerge as “Presidentiables” in 2009. I think that at least one religious leader will emerge as a Presidential Candidate in 2009. Also, look for a businessman step into the race. Trapo’s (Traditional Politicians) may fade, and leave the race to non-traditional hands. This could be the first step toward moving the Philippines away from corruption, and more toward stability and more democracy.
- Economics. The world will continue to spiral into economic turmoil in 2009, and I think that things will not improve next year, and possibly for several more years. However, the Philippines will remain relatively unscathed by the downturn that the world will be facing. There will be a slowdown in the Philippines, but growth will continue, albeit at a slower pace, and a recession (or depression) here will be avoided. In fact, as things spiral lower in the rest of the world, the Philippines may actually find ways to dominate. This would particularly happen in areas like outsourcing, call centers, bpo, and other such activities.
- Readdressing Lingual Education. With activities in business areas like call centers thriving in the Philippines, the Philippines will quickly find drastic shortages in it’s available labor pool. English speakers will be needed to fill these types of jobs, and they are quickly running out in the Philippines. This will cause further emphasis on teaching adequate English skills in the schools here. Possibly, legislation will be passed in this area in 2009. With or without the passing of legislation, this is a topic that will become more broadly discussed in the Philippines this coming year.
- Retirement & Expat Destination. With the United States and most of the world facing economic turmoil, a lot more people from these countries will start looking at becoming expats and living in other parts of the world. The Philippines will eventually benefit from this. We probably won’t start to see this too much in 2009, but the foundation will be laid for such a move. As more and more people in the developed world start to see that opportunities are limited where they are, they will start looking at making changes in their lives, and more and more of these people will start looking at moving to places like Mexico or the Philippines for a better lifestyle. This will eventually lead to the realization that in underdeveloped countries, there are many opportunities to earn a living, and a better lifestyle to boot. As this mindset develops, it will actually become a political issue in the United States, and lead to legislation in this regard.
- Mindanao Issue. With the Ancestral Domain issue blowing up politically in 2008, things are ripe for change in Mindanao starting in 2009. Right now, the common thinking would be that war is at hand in Mindanao. However, it is at times like this when Peace can be achieved more easily. There may be some blow-ups in the process, but such events may lead toward more urgency among the people talking peace. This could lead to a settlement between the Philippine Government and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front. It’s hard to know for sure what will happen, but I think we can all rest assured that something will happen – either a turn for the worse or the better. Mindanao is at a crossroad right now. In my mind, there are three possible paths for Mindanao. Firstly, battles, shootings and such could increase and lead to lawlessness in Mindanao. Second, such actions as mentioned previously could actually make peace more critical for both sides, leading to a further agreement, and a path toward ultimat peace. Third, a totally unconventional solution could be found by Mindanaoans themselves, leaving the Government totally out of it. The Mindanao Independence movement has grown a lot stronger over the past 5 years or so.
- Internet Business Use. Businesses in the Philippines are starting to understand that they can benefit from proper use of the Internet. Have you noticed that Philippine companies are even advertising on big sites like Facebook now? It’s true. This will gain steam in 2009, and we will start seeing the seeds of this happen in Philippine business. We may actually start seeing Philippine businesses answer e-mails and moving toward dominating markets on the Internet!
- Broadband Availability. The availability of broadband internet has improved greatly in the past 8 years that I have lived here. However, we have been seeing speeds like 200 to 300 Kbps. In the past months, we are starting to see companies experimenting with 1, 2 or 3 Mbps offerings, and I’ve even heard of some companies offering as much as 10 Mbps to home users! This will become more prevelant in 2009, and by the end of 2009 a 1 Mbps connection from your home will become more or less the standard for those with broadband.
- Pull back of US commitments. Over the past Century, we have seen the United States support the Philippines financially in many ways. The USA provides much of the military infrastructure that the Philippines uses, and also funds many programs for the Philippines. I believe that in 2009 we will start seeing this support start to fade. We may not see drastic cutbacks in such aid/support, but I think that the groundwork will be laid in 2009 for future cutbacks. The reason for such cutback is twofold. Firstly, the United States is facing troubled economic times, and needs to spend more money domestically, and that means less for foreign spending. Secondly, President Obama ran on promises of pulling back militarily from many parts of the world, and aiding the Philippines will probably be one of the things that will be cut.
OK, now you know my top 10 predictions for 2009 in the Philippines. Do you have predictions for the coming year? Why not share them in your comment below?
About MindanaoBob
Thank you Ester. Please keep visiting!
Hi Richard D – Yes, the drug wars have made Mexico very dangerous. I was reading just a week ago or so that Mexico is now the world leader in Kidnappings! Funny thing is that most Americans would think of the Philippines as being extremely dangerous, and Mexico as a nice vacation place! How wrong they are!
Hey, those terrorist mosquitoes can be deadly!
Hi Paul – Thanks for sharing your take on the predictions. Some of your ideas I agree with, others not so much. But, just like mine, these are predictions, so we never know what could happen!
Happy New Year, Paul!
you know many people believed that number 7,8,and 9 are the luckiest no,specially chinese.will base on my observation this all numbers are very bad luck,every cycle of the resistance on the chart i saw 1947,1977,1997-98 and 2008-2009 are the worst number what a great number.will my prediction of number 8 is a financial crises,and depression and drive as into deep into resession. and 9 taking lives,hundreds and thousand of people died,from 7,8 or 9 air plane crash only 2009. and ,9 crashing train,sinking ships,extra ordinary typhone that never happen before, a huge huge powerfull earthquake that shaking our world,spreading epidimic and diseas that made of human that consider war on terror,i dont know what penomenom are coming this august,and september they are 8 and 9. this coming 2011 the economy will start to recover,and 2013 and 2015 world economy will be shape and healthy and one of the best performing economy on the history.
Hi Dave – Personally, I could not live in Cebu, it’s just too crowded for me. But, we are all different, and we all have to make our own choices.
Call centers are really the rage here in the Philippines these days, and a major contributor toward employment here. Glad you enjoyed the movie!
Hi JohmM – I agree about Mexico, it is way more dangerous than the Philippines these days. But, I am not endorsing Mexico by what I said, only pointing out that it is already a retirement destination in the way that I think the Philippines can be, and also that more Americans will, in my opinion, be seeking out such retirement havens in the coming years.
I agree, I’ve never been fearful of my safety here in the Philippines.
Hi JohmM – We’ll see how the military aid thing goes… remember, I did say it may take longer than a year, but could get it’s start in 2009.
Hi brian – I fully agree about the politicians, that is why they want Cha-Cha so badly, so that they can stay longer in office, beyond mandated term limits! But, the people are strongly opposed.
Regarding economy – I am not saying the RP won’t be affected, rather I think that the impact here will be kept to the minimum.
If terrorists attack, as I think they might, if they want to have a big impact, they will need to strike Manila. A strike in Mindanao won’t have much impact, because bombings are not that unusual down here, heck it is not even something I worry about. There is one exception, a major strike in Davao would have impact, because it would be so unusual for it to happen here.
Hi BrSpiritus – Sorry, your comment went to Spam, not sure why.
Regarding terrorism – oil prices are higher now than they were on 9/11, so if they could afford it then, they can certainly afford it now. Also, I believe that any such attack would be home-grown, and thus not affected by oil prices (depending on where the funding comes from, though).
Economics – I also believe a depression is looming, I’ve said that for some time. However, depression means we’ll be experiencing deflation, not inflation. Also, I think that the call center business will increase nicely in 2009. US Companies will be looking to cut back on US staff, and moving it offshore even more will be a benefit. There won’t be time to get anti-outsourcing legislation until at least 2010.
Retirement – On my prediction, I didn’t specifically say that the Philippines would be THE destination, only that more people would look to retire abroad. it could be Argentina, or somewhere else. The Philippines might gain some benefit too, but my prediction is only that it is a trend that will increase (for Americans look toward living abroad).
Internet – PLDT and others leave a lot to be desired, but I’ve been here 9 years, and believe me they have come a long way already – yes, there is a long way to go, but the improvements I have seen are dramatic.
Broadband – I’ve been trying to get a Sky Cable Internet connection for years… they don’t have service in my neighborhood, though. These are the kinds of improvements I am seeing, though, and I believe that they are making an impact. Did you know that Sky is offering 10 Mbps in some parts of Manila already?
Your predictions:
Peso – If we see that, it will surprise me. I think that 50 is possible, but not much more. I hope you are right on though!
Money – Although it is hard to argue with your prediction, I just don’t see metals as the way to go right now. Frankly, though, I am just not sure which way to go, though!
Good predictions, Louis!
Hi Randall Jessup – Your predictions look pretty good to me. Let’s look at a few:
1. OFW layoffs. This is inevitable. The only question is, how many? This could actually turn into a good thing for the Philippines too, as OFW’s return home full of information on new technologies and such that they can bring to the Philippines. It could create a boom in the Philippines, depending on the money situation.
3. I don’t know if I agree on inflation. It is already quite high, and even if it just remains the same, the impact will be bad.
4. There are not too many unions in the Philippines, so I am not sure I agree on this one.
6. I agree that this is quite possible, except I don’t think that final ratification will wait for a new government. If that happens, it could lead to war, because the MILF already feels they were slapped in the face this year, and I don’t know that they would accept a year and a half of waiting for ratification this time.
8. I hope this happens, but I expect it will take longer than a year for it to push through.
10. Shucks! I am quite disappointed on this one! I thought that the main reason they would come to Davao is because I am a promoter for the City! Oh well…
Thanks for your predictions, I think you are pretty accurate, but we’ll see next year!
Happy new year!
Hi neil – Thanks for sharing your insights. We will see how it all works out in 2009! One thing I want to note is that I did not predict that the Philippines would be a retirement haven. I said that due to the economy issues, more Americans will consider retiring in foreign countries. The Philippines may or may not benefit from that, but that was not my prediction.
Happy New Year, Neil!
Hi Phil n Jess R. – Now that is a good prediction!
Hi Phil n Jess R. – We’ve had it pretty hard here lately, weather-wise. I think it was down below 80F one night recently!
Hi brian – Deflation ran pretty deep for years during the depression. I agree that a lot of the monetary policies (can you even call them policies?) lately are super-inflationary, but we’ll have to see how it plays out.
Hi Michael – I agree about the laws and policies here, they are mostly not foreigner friendly, which will hurt the Philippines as more people consider living abroad.
When I said that returning OFW’s could be a boon for the Philippines, because of what the OFW’s can bring back with them, I wasn’t talking money, I was talking information, ideas and such.
Hi BrSpiritus – I don’t think that the 9/11 terrorists were really state funded, so oil prices don’t matter that much. Poppy prices and other drug prices are probably more important, and I don’t know what they are doing, but I doubt they are going down!
Regarding retirement, if a person gets laid off and there are no jobs available, and he can live here for half the price, it’s an option, no doubt. When there are no good options, you have to go for the best available.
Hi Roy – Well, I don’t have any dance steps to share! I’m afraid that if I were to do any dancing it might scare away all the readers!
Happy New Year, Roy!
Hi Hill – We do have control to some degree, at least we can make plans to prepare for what may come!
Hi brian –
Hi Phil n Jess R. – I think that the poor that you are talking about don’t own any land for the most part, so I don’t think that it would create such a problem.
Hi namad4ever – Thanks for your comment. Hmm… so you are planning a move to Palawan? I guess you are breaking that news here on LiP, because I didn’t see anything on your blog about it!
Good luck with that, Palawan is a beautiful place!
I have a couple of things planned for comment improvements in the very near future. I’ll try to include the one that you mentioned too. Thanks for letting me know.
Hi Macky – As a foreign guest of the Philippines, I try not to name any certain names of candidates that i like or support. There is one, though, that you mentioned whom I like. It’s a “she” and used to spend a lot of time reporting from Mindanao, I won’t name who it is (
) , but I like her and think she might offer some good things for the country.
Like you, the building boom in Davao is something which worries me. I hope it’s not too much, too fast.
Regarding local elections…. well, not trying to pry into your personal business, but I’m curious. You mention that it is a younger generation of two political families (I’ll call them political powerhouse families) that will face each other. Given the personalities involved, is there any certain one that you support? I mean, given family ties and such, there is one that I would suspect you would support, but I can’t be sure. I think that I like the other one, not the one that you would be expected to be behind. Remember, I can’t vote, so we can still be friends, right?
Hi macky – interesting comments about Mexico. I agree, we should not be quick to judge, because I know that the things that are written about Mindanao are not all true.
Hi macky – I’m glad you got a laugh…. I didn’t want you to feel offended. From the sounds of it, you could be in for some real interesting discussions when you got to that point.
Regarding the two powerhouse families, do you think that 2010 will see the end of the current generation, and they will fade away? I kind of doubt it will happen, though, although the children will certainly rise in the limelight.
Hi Hill – Happy New Years!
Hi brspiritus – When I mentioned poppies, I was no longer talking about 9/11, sorry, I think that I wasn’t clear on that. A lot of the terrorism these days is more funded from drug money, and other such activities.
Hi nomad4ever – Well, I think you’ll find some nice places in Palawan. If you happen to make it down to Davao, let’s plan to get together!
Hi JR Tingson – Hey, I like that prediction!
Hi John H – That is a good track record. As for your money in the bank, if it is in a US bank, it should be relatively safe, unless you have more than the FDIC insures. I don’t think you have anything to worry about there.
It will certainly be an interesting year to come!
Hi Macky – I don’t really mind if my preference were revealed, but given my previous comments it would expose who you might favor.
I really kept it more “secret” for your benefit.
Really, I believe that the two families in question have both done very good things for Davao, and continue to do so today. Either family would serve the city well.
I think that there is some basis behind the constant health concerns when it comes to the Mayor. However, I don’t think that the condition is as serious as is rumored, and that he can recover. Did you know that there are rumors that the Mayor will run for Vice Mayor next term? Now, that could be interesting!
Hi macky – Keep me posted with the latest tsismis, OK?
Hi macky/roy – no apologies needed, this is just the natural progression of the comment thread. I don’t consider it off-topic.
Hi Roy – Walay problema…
Hi Michael Severy – Sorry we didn’t get to meet, but I am happy to hear that things you have read here proved helpful! Nothing makes me happier.
It sounds like you lived well while you were here!
Hi Dave – I would have to say that the Philippines is probably the world capital of the Pun!
Hi bharbie – Well, it just depends on so many factors. The projected life would be different for every small business, depending on the skills of the business owner, capitalization, acceptance of the product offered, and thousands of other factors.
Hi Vanessa Anne Avila – Well, if some of my predictions don’t happen, I’m ok about that. Being 100% on such predictions would be very rare anyway!
We’ll take a look next year and see how things develop.
Hi kim – the population of the Philippines is around 90 million.
Hi Voncir – Ha ha… better make it a write in vote, since I would never be running!
Hi sisi – Thanks for sharing your predictions.
Hi Perry – Ha ha… I doubt that will ever happen!