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This has been a weekend of political unrest in several countries, most notably in Egypt.  It would seem that the society in Egypt is totally out of control, and I would think that the only way that things will be calmed down will be by the removal of President Mubarak.  As a sort of Political/News/Geography junkie, I have been keeping a close eye on the happenings in Egypt, Tunisia, Yemen, Jordan and elsewhere over the past week or so.  It is quite surprising to me how quickly all of this came to pass in the Middle East region, and I wonder where it will stop.

All of these happenings have really reminded me of the happenings in the Philippines in January 2001.  During the last quarter of 2000, there were Impeachment hearings against President Estrada in Manila.  By the end of 2000 and into the beginning of 2001, it became obvious that the Impeachment hearings had turned into nothing but a whitewash, and no real justice would prevail.  The Filipino people, for the second time in less than two decades took to the streets with a “People Power” movement.  Within just a few days of massive protests, President Estrada was removed from office, and a new President took the helm, President Arroyo.

How to Move to the Philippines Manual

In the previous paragraph, I said that January 2001 was the second time that the Philippine people had taken to the streets and brought an administration down.  The first incident, which is very famous, was the People Power Revolution in 1986, which was lead by Corazon Aquino, and deposed President Ferdinand Marcos.

As I watch the events in Egypt on TV, the similarities to what I witnessed in 2001 are very clear to me.  The tanks in the streets.  The masses of people.  Some of the military forces actually switching sides and joining the people in protest against the government.  Yes, I’ve seen this before, and I expect that it will end in Egypt the same way it has ended twice in the Philippines, with the removal of the leader.

On Sunday, as I was watching the demonstrations in Egypt, I saw one person holding a sign that said:

America, stop siding with Mubarak.  We don’t want to hate America.

Well, I suspect that there are some who want to hate America and there are some who do not.  But, the US is in a very touchy position in Egypt.  Mubarak has been a staunch US ally for 30 years, and Sadat before him.  Yet, if the US continues to support Mubarak, it will lead to a lot of negative feelings among the Egyptian people.  Here in the Philippines, 25 years after Marcos was ousted, I still have Filipino people ask me why the US supported Marcos.  So, US support will lead to hard feelings after Mubarak is ousted, I have no doubt about that.  It has been said on the news that tear gas canisters being used in Egypt to keep the crowds under control have writing on them that says:  “Made in the USA”.  That will be a hard image for the United States to overcome.  How could a person who came under attack with those US made tear gas canisters feel postive toward the USA?  It would seem to me that it would be very difficult to have positive toward the USA after seeing those canisters.

So, with a number of countries in the Middle East facing such demonstrations, how many governments do you think will be overthrown?  Will they become democratic, or turn to another dictator?  Will they be like the Philippines – go toward democracy, albeit a democracy riddled with corruption?  It’s hard to say right now, but I fear that they will either be ruled by another set of dictators, or they will go the way of the Philippines and face generations of corruption.  What do you think?

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Bob Martin

Bob Martin is the Publisher & Editor in Chief of the Live in the Philippines Web Magazine. Bob is an Internet Entrepreneur who is based in Davao. Bob is an American who has lived permanently in Mindanao since May 2000. Here in Mindanao, Bob has resided in General Santos City, and now in Davao City. Bob is the owner of this website and many others.

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John
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John

The Suez canal handles 8% of global sea trade, 35.000 ships per annum. If is closes trade will be forced to add 6000 miles to their journey, it is obvious why the US gives 1.3 billion in aid to receive priority in the canal. The USA and other traders will have no choice but to deal with Mubuarak or a new regime. The only country I have visited where the people seem to “Like” is the USA is the Philippines and maybe Mexico.

MindanaoBob
Guest

Ha ha… your last statement is probably true for the most part. But, a lot of people like Americans, just not the policies of the USA. Those are two different things, though.

Randy W.
Guest
Randy W.

Bob The price of oil is spiking due to the violence in the Middle East. That is not good for people in the US. The value of the dollar is also rising. Jordan is friendly towards us so it will be interesting to see how that plays out. I would like to see the Iranian people start up the protests again and overthrow the government. I think Israel really has the biggest stake in this due to the peace treaty with Egypt and if the next government will be friendly towards them. I visited both Tunisia and Egypt while in… Read more »

MindanaoBob
Guest

Hi Randy – I saw that Donald Trump commented that the crisis could actually make the price of oil tumble in the longer run, because the crisis could lead to the breaking apart of OPEC. I had not thought about that, but he is right, over the longer term that could happen!

Mars Z.
Guest
Mars Z.

My prediction is the price will spike but will come because they need to sell oil to finance some of their expensive infrastructure–they need our money, then we really need to Drill, Baby, Drill! We have a lot of reserves in oil, natural gas and coal.

Mars Z.
Guest
Mars Z.

correction: price will come down because…….

MindanaoBob
Guest

I saw a TV show the other day that oil was found in North Dakota, and they said it is the Saudi Arabia of North America!

Montana Gary
Guest
Montana Gary

Yes, the Bakken shale fields in North Dakota and eastern Montana. The government estimates there are 4.3 billion barrels of oil in the fields but Harold Hamm, the CEO of the Continental Resources oil company, says the formations in North Dakota and Montana hold about 20 billion barrels of recoverable crude.

Now, will anybody be allowed to extract it?

MindanaoBob
Guest

Hi Gary – Actually, in the show I saw, a documentary, they are pumping away already. The show is called “Boomtown” and is about a small town in North Dakota which has truly become a boom town due to the oil. And, yes… they did say the fields are called “Bakken”. They have a slogan there called “Rockin’ the Bakken”.

Jack
Guest
Jack

Blaming the rise in oil prices on the conflict on Egypt at the time isn’t totally true. The price of oil peaked at $91 before this crisis in Egypt. The cost jumped from around $75 a barrel to $86 a barrel when the Federal Reserve announced that it was buying $600 billion of US Treasury Bonds. I read an internet article with a quote from Ben Bernake that inflation was under control when he was justifying the purchase. The price fell to about $86 a barrel after the Christmas holidays. The latest 5% increase from $86 to $90 a barrel… Read more »

MindanaoBob
Guest

All true, Jack, but there is an additional spike due to the Egypt situation.. oil is up over $100 now.

Jack
Guest
Jack

Oops. I guess that I am wrong. I just learned about Brent Crude Oil. Brent Crude Oil has topped $100 a barrel.

MindanaoBob
Guest

Yep! 😉

Ricardo Sumilang
Guest
Ricardo Sumilang

Awwwright! So, when do you think we’re gonna start seeing the price of gas at the pump?

MindanaoBob
Guest

Just to be clear, I did not say that the price would fall, I said that Donald Trump said that. I don’t necessarily believe that to be the case.

Ricardo Sumilang
Guest
Ricardo Sumilang

Should have been, “drop of prices at the pump”

Montana Gary
Guest
Montana Gary

Yes, they are already pumping away. I knew that but I was wondering if the government and the enviromentalists would let them go all out.

MindanaoBob
Guest

From what I saw on the show, it seemed like they were pumping full speed ahead! It seemed like there was a real big well there too, I hope that they get to keep on pumping!

Dan
Guest
Dan

Well Bob…It will be intesting to see what takes place. But I would bet that there will not be any kind of democratic goverment in Egypt after the dust clears.I belive the Radical Muslims will probably take over sooner or later and the people there will in the long run have less freedom than they do now and their women will wonder what happened when they have to comply to Radical Muslim law. Israel will have something else to worry about, also if Egypt changes as it may well do, there are a few other Arab countries that are near… Read more »

MindanaoBob
Guest

Hi Dan – Your words have a ring of truth to them. I hope it goes the other way, but it’s way too unpredictable now to have any idea.

brian
Guest
brian

Statistically when one regime is forcefully replaced it is replaced with one that is worse. What concerns me is this could be along line of revolutions driven by adverse economic tides in numerous Countries around the globe.

MindanaoBob
Guest

I totally agree, brian. I don’t think this will be limited to the Middle East either, it could happen anywhere on the Globe, especially if there are economic problems.

John
Guest
John

However, some countries have lost a war and have become major powerhouses, Germany, Japan, Vietnam, South Korea. I guess it could be debated if Vietnam lost or won, but after a change some countries seem to blossom.

Dan
Guest
Dan

John..I would say that Vietnam won..The USA never had any real intention of wining any way and they didn’t.In fact as far as I am concerned the USA has not had any real intention of winning any of the wars they have been in since World War 2.,but sure a lot of wasted lifes.

Ricardo Sumilang
Guest
Ricardo Sumilang

I’m divided about as to who won. Some say it was a political defeat for the U.S. (we were losing the battle of public opinion both in the U.S. and internationally), but certainly not military defeat for we could have bombed the North “back into the Stone Age”, as the favorite saying went back in those days. In hindsight, historians are saying that the Vietcongs and the North Vietnamese Army won and they have a point. We pulled out of Vietnam in 1975 ignominuously defeated, like a dog with its tail between its legs. The embarassing image of Americans and… Read more »

Mars Z.
Guest
Mars Z.

Ricardo, the US military won all the battles during the Vietnam war, the politicians lost the war.

Ricardo Sumilang
Guest
Ricardo Sumilang

Did I not say above that it was a political defeat, but certainly not a military defeat, Mars?

Mars Z.
Guest
Mars Z.

Yes.

Gordon B
Guest
Gordon B

Not a military defeat? I’m astounded that anyone with the ability to write and therefore even a modicum of intelligence would say that. America is historically poor at land wars. Yes, they can bomb things from the air and from a distance, but when it comes down to being down on the ground running around fighting the enemy face to face, in an even battle, they have always been defeated. That’s what happened in Vietnam folks, and the guys who were fighting there know that, and with the wisdom and maturity of age that they now have, many of them… Read more »

brian
Guest
brian

Vietnam was a war our troops fought with one hand tied behind thier backs due to politics. If you compare the vietcong tactics they were very similair to the japenese gorilla tactics in WWII and our ground troops prevailed in the majority of battles. Our ground troops are the model for most Countries.

Katrina
Guest
Katrina

I’m not sure but didn’t the US pullout when the Southern Army raised the white flag? It’s no use for the US continuing the battles when the South Vietnam surrendered.

But no doubt, the Vietnam war was one of the most unpopular overseas war of the US. It’s just like they prolonged the unification. I wonder how much that cost US taxpayers

Mars Z.
Guest
Mars Z.

Katrina, the US has already pulled out when North Vietnam invaded the South in 1975 and violated the Paris Treaty signed maybe a couple of years prior. The south had enough arms to defend themselves but just run out of will to fight. As a part of the US pull-out, agreement in Paris included promise by the North not invade the South and the US will back the South if the North does not hold the part of the bargain. The North invaded and US did not back the South. The picture of the Embassy transporting personnel from the roof… Read more »

jonathan
Guest
jonathan

As General Maxwell Taylor, one of the principal architects of the Vietnam War has said, “First, we didn’t know ourselves. We thought that we were going into another Korean War, but this was a different country. Secondly, we didn’t know our South Vietnamese allies… And we knew less about North Vietnam. Who was Ho Chi Minh? Nobody really knew. So, until we know the enemy and know our allies and know ourselves, we’d better keep out of this kind of dirty business. It’s very dangerous.”

Bryan G
Guest
Bryan G

As usual the US supported corrupt right wing governments that did not have the support of the Vietnamese people.There are 2 books that are a must read about Vietnam – The Ten Thousand Day War and A Bright And Shining Lie.Both of these books give a tremendous insight into the war .

MindanaoBob
Guest

Well… not sure I would count Vietnam as a “major powerhouse”. They are moving in the right direction, but I don’t think they have reached powerhouse status on any front yet.

John
Guest
John

Not Powerhouse status yet, however when you consider the turmoil 35 years ago and now their status they are on the right track. I was merely saying change in a regime isn’t always a bad thing, it takes time but most of the countries seem to do well post change. I really don’t understand why the RP hasn’t enjoyed the tremendous growth other countries seem to have once change happens. You can’t run a country like you would as high school class president. As for Egypt, let’s hope they are able to find an accord that its citizens and global… Read more »

MindanaoBob
Guest

Yes, it is moving in the right direction, I was just surprised that in the previous comment you said it was a Powerhouse! Thanks for clearing up your thoughts on that.

Why the Philippines hasn’t enjoyed tremendous growth? Too much corruption. No transparency.

peterjoy
Guest
peterjoy

HI BOB

ALL THE US AS GOT TO DO IS DROPJUST ONE BOOM ON THEM RAG HEADS AND IT WOULD BE ALL OVER MATE ONE DAY THAY MAY SEE IT WAS THE BEST WAY TO GO……….PETER MARTIN TASSIE

MindanaoBob
Guest

Hi peter – Well, hopefully it would end in a different way than that. 🙁

Katrina
Guest
Katrina

It’s because the line between “entertainment” and “politics” has been totally blurred. Politicians become entertainers, and entertainers become pseudo-politicians. LOL.

brian
Guest
brian

Do you recall what happened right after we left vietnam? I would hardly call that a civilized progressive regime.

John
Guest
John

In time they got their act together and are on the right track. With everything the US did for the RP in terms of aid why are things still in shambles. I wonder if there is actually a department for begging? I see so many bridges donated by XXXXX and there seems to be pride when thier Navy or Army or Police get another handout from the west.

Dwayne
Guest
Dwayne

Having lived and worked in the middle east for many years, this is the only type of government the Muslim countries can live in. I have no doubt that another authoritative person will take control in Egypt and rule for many years. Democracy just doesn’t work over there. I may be going out on a limb and suggest that it (Democracy) doesn’t seem to work here in the Philippines to well either in that there is just too much fredom and very little law so lawlessness can go unimpeded as does corruption.

MindanaoBob
Guest

Hi Dwayne – What is happening in the Philippines is not working… you may be right.

Katrina
Guest
Katrina

I think it boils down to implementation of laws…politicians in the Philippines always come up with new laws but hardly enforce it. Just look at the lack of “traffic rules”. How can politicians implement such bigger laws, mandates, reforms when they can’t work with the small ones.

And for the Filipino voters, they seem to take politics as if it’s some “American Idol” thing.

Jon
Guest

I’m betting you will be proven wrong

MindanaoBob
Guest

I am hoping you are right, Jon, but we can only wait and see.

Jon
Guest

to clarify…I’m referring to Dwayne’s statement that democracy will not take hold in Egypt. Just listen to the people….they will not stand for anything less. The people really are in charge this time. Iran has just cut all internet and cell phone contact with the outside world.

Iran will be next and this time the Obama administration will not be passive as in 2009. Cutting off internet and cell networks will soon become the “canary” that indicates a regime is about to go down. I am wondering what China is making of all this.

MindanaoBob
Guest

Hi Jon – Yes, I understand what you are saying, and I hope you are right. I hope that we don’t see Egypt go the way of Iran in 1979.

Paul
Guest

Hi Bob – Am hearing some similar mumblings in the background regarding PNoy. A national morning program on one of the networks voiced an opinion that PNoy may not last a full term but might be removed for incompetence. Talk about grabbing one’s attention!

MindanaoBob
Guest

Wow, Paul, I had not heard that one. I really hope that the Philippines can avoid such “adventurism” – it’s already played out here, and following the constitutional remedies is the way to go, IMHO.

Katrina
Guest
Katrina

True enough. LOL. I have not lived the Marcos era so I can’t comment on that but I have lived Estrada’s presidency. The problem with people “ousting” presidents in spur of the moment, is that they do not think of someone that would replace the “corrupt” one. They ousted Erap only to be replaced by someone not trustworthy. That given, it’s not a surprise why Arroyo wasn’t ousted: who are they gonna replace her with? There sure are people who wouldn’t want to repeat the same errors. /off topic /Though I’m not a fan of Cory and Gloria and not… Read more »

MindanaoBob
Guest

You are right that it always comes down to “who’s gonna replace” the leader.. and often that is not thought about in advance!

Gordon B
Guest
Gordon B

To me, as an outsider, Gloria seemed to be the first person who governed the Philippines who actually seemed to be properly qualified to do so, with a good education etc. Ex singers and actors MIGHT have the intelligence to surround themselves with people who actually do know how to run a country, but then again, they might just be a popular personality and be pushed around by various factions. People said this and people said that; but I say that Gloria had a near impossible job anyway, and all in all, I don’t think she did too badly. Her… Read more »

Katrina
Guest
Katrina

My biggest complaint on her successor, he seem to have been voted by the people sure to popularity. He may not be an actor or singer but wasn’t the year before the election the year of his mother’s death and not to forget he comes from an economic giant and political family. And I wonder how he will deal with the “land issue”. Yknow hacienderos and farmers. But I think he will evade that given the strong conflict of interest. And I’m a bit concerned of him appointing some leftist esp people from the left never condemned the NPAs terrorizing… Read more »

brian
Guest
brian

I wonder what these politicians think when they go to places like Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam and look around and see the organized prosperity , then step off the plane back in MNL .

Montana Gary
Guest
Montana Gary

Brian, I have taken my wife to Hong Kong, Thailand, Macau and Singapore and each time when we returned to NAIA in Manila, she asks me why the Philippines can’t be like those places.

John
Guest
John

They are like every single one of us thinking God here I am again, take a deep breath and try to survive another week until our next journey out. I look at planes arriving everyday and say in the back of my mind poor folks, and the planes departing the lucky ones.

Ricardo Sumilang
Guest
Ricardo Sumilang

After so many years of poverty and unemployment, one has to wonder what took the Egyptian people so long to rise up against Mubarak, but it’s better late than never, I suppose. With the way the daily protests have been going on with no end in sight, the Egyptian people are not going to be denied. They’ve committed themselves to this revolution with only one thing in mind: they are not going to stop until Mubarak steps down, reform or no reform. For Mubarak to think that by firing his cabinet, promising social reforms, and appointing a vice-president for the… Read more »

MindanaoBob
Guest

Hi Ricardo – You are right, the Egyptian people are not interested in a shuffling of the deck chairs, they want a new captain for the ship.

But, the poverty and unemployment in Egypt is no worse than in the Philippines. Why has change not come to the Philippines?

Ricardo Sumilang
Guest
Ricardo Sumilang

Beats me, Bob. They seem to keep changing chairs, but they seem to be dancing with the same partners. LOL

MindanaoBob
Guest

That’s true for sure, Ricardo.

brian
Guest
brian

When your greatest export is the ‘educated masses’ its no wonder its politics as usual in the RP.

John
Guest
John

Brian, everytime I am at NAIA and I see these kids leaving I get a lump in my throat. What other country would a Father have to go to the airport to send his son off for work?

brian
Guest
brian

good point !

MindanaoBob
Guest

Yep, no doubt about that, brian!

Neil
Guest
Neil

Hi Bob Its quite obvious Mubarak will have to step down soon. The interesting thing is who will take his place in the long run. Will it be someone from the Muslim Brotherhood or someone who supports democracy and freedom or religion (10% of the population is Christian). I think Israel is quite concerned because even though it was a cold peace between Egypt at least Egypt tried to mediate the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and helped to some degree preventing of supplies to Hamas in Gaza. I think Yemen or Jordan could be the next country whose leader may fall. I… Read more »

MindanaoBob
Guest

Hi Neil – Yes, I don’t think there is any doubt that Mubarak can’t remain in office. His time is limited, for sure. The thing with China is that they have the power and the money to blow off what everybody else thinks, and have shown that they don’t mind handling unrest with bullets.

The Philippine economy is barely growing. When growth is the same rate as inflation, there is no real growth.

Neil
Guest
Neil

I agree that growth is very unequal in the Philippines so that many maybe even most don’t feel the benefits of it. Arab countries have a faster growing population then the Philippines so that they have many more young people unemployed and with an education that does them little or no good. Many young Filipinos get an education that they can use overseas such as nursing or accounting. I also believe many more Filipinas are working and helping to support the family compared to Arab women working. Just like in the U.S. where 50 years ago many Woman stayed home… Read more »

Katrina
Guest
Katrina

I have mixed feelings about our labor export. From professionals to “manual workers”, it doesn’t seem right but on the other hand, I understand the financial need of these people. I just don’t like how the government are selling our people as if they’re commodities (I mean encouraging people to work outside — which tears apart Filipino families — to keep the economy afloat). Heck, didn’t Gloria have that “supermaid” thing? What the Philippines is doing the opposite of what our neighbors has done and been doing and became more successful than the Philippines. We used to teach Thailand and… Read more »

MindanaoBob
Guest

I just did a search and the data would indicate that the population growth in Egypt and the Philippines is identical – 1.8% annually.

Dan
Guest
Dan

Well..I am thinking that Israel better get it back together…a few years ago that little deal with Lebanon should have taught them that they were a little weak from what they used to be.Now I am not saying they do not have it pretty much together, but that little deal with Lebanon over all I would think showed they had relaxed a little to much. I also think that Israel better understand that they do not have a real friend in the White House now..(I am sure they all ready know that ) Now that being said I think the… Read more »

MindanaoBob
Guest

Yeah, Israel is in a very precarious position right now! I am sure they have both eyes peeled on Egypt!

hudson
Guest
hudson

Hi Bob,
Why does the US side with dictators?
Because the dictator that you know is better that the revolutionary that you don’t.

In the case of Egypt, It is concerning that the Muslim brotherhood may gain power, and set back decades of progress.

Ricardo Sumilang
Guest
Ricardo Sumilang

If you look at all the interventionisms that the U.S. has done around the world following WWII, the U.S. has always sided with whoever is in power regardless of whether that individual is a dictator or an elected leader because it is with those who are in power that the U.S. has diplomatic relations with. It is simply a canon of diplomacy and foreign relations that must be observed by every civilized nation. While the strategic interests of the U.S. are always at the forefront of diplomacy, however, history has shown that the U.S. will intervene officially or clandestinely when… Read more »

Boss
Guest
Boss

Hear, hear. Countries like to blame the USA for all their problems but like you say the US has it’s own interests to look after and why not? After all those same countries like the taste of the greenback. For all the criticism the policies of the USA gets I would rather have them onside any day. As I was tucking into my grain fed T-bone steak and chips and king prawn salad for lunch I was watching the news from Egypt on cable TV unfold. When I heard the daily wage is about 1.7 euro I actually felt a… Read more »

MindanaoBob
Guest

That steak sounds good, Boss! Shame on you! 😉

Boss
Guest
Boss

Hahahah being in a first world country does have it’s benefits.

MindanaoBob
Guest

Of course!

ian
Guest
ian

Ricardo- are you saying that when the US intervened in Iraq that they sided with who was in power ie Sadam Hussein ??

brian
Guest
brian

We unfortunatly ‘made’ Saddam. To use an Arab saying: ” My enemys, enemy is my best friend” the 7 year Iraqi – Iran war we supplies Saddam with most of the weapons.

Ricardo Sumilang
Guest
Ricardo Sumilang

Ian, with due respect, your question is really a no-brainer. Had you taken the time to read my post in its entirety, you would have gained a comprehensive perspective of what was actually said, instead of dwelling exclusively on selected portions of the message, i.e., “While the strategic interests of the U.S. are always at the forefront of diplomacy, however, history has shown that the U.S. will intervene officially [post WWII by U.S. Armed Forces: Korea, Vietnam, Grenada, Somalia, Persian Gulf wars], or clandestinely [by CIA/Special Forces: Ghana, Bay of Pigs, Chile, Nicaragua, El Salvador, ad infinitum] when those interests… Read more »

MindanaoBob
Guest

Of course, the US and every other country always sides with whoever can serve it’s interests today. Tomorrow is another worry.

Mars Z.
Guest
Mars Z.

…and with consequences, Bob. I’m quoting General Powell again “If you break it, you own it”. We are paying for the decision of our leaders, supporting friend or foe.

MindanaoBob
Guest

No need to worry about borrowing your quote from General Powell… he borrowed it from somewhere else, that’s an old, old saying! 😉

Ricardo Sumilang
Guest
Ricardo Sumilang

You see that sign at almost every antique store. LOL

Mars Z.
Guest
Mars Z.

I’m not quoting Gen. Powell for the quote itself, but the decision to invade Iraq to get rid of Saddam have consequences if everything does not go smoothly as planned and he was right.

MindanaoBob
Guest

Ha ha.. very true! So, can we assume that General Powell collects antiques then? 😉

Mars Z.
Guest
Mars Z.

No, he got out of the antique business and got of dodge quick.

MindanaoBob
Guest

😉

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