Well, obviously, 2008 is drawing to a close quickly. It seems like just yesterday we were all worried about Y2K issues and such, and here we are almost a decade into the new millennium! How can it be? Well, it’s true, so no need to dwell on how fast time flies. With the end of 2008, though, it’s time to take a look at the coming year, and see what things might happen if we speculate about possibilities for the year.
2009 promises to be a banner year in many respects. Of course, the United States will get a new President, and for the first time, a person of color will serve as the President of the United States. I hope for the very best for President Obama, but I also think that the sailing ahead will not be smooth. There are dramatic challenges for the new President to face, and we should all wish him luck on the road ahead. It won’t be easy, I think we can all be certain of that. However, this site doesn’t focus on the United States, and politics there, we focus on the Philippines. Of course, many of President Obama’s actions will affect the Philippines, but let’s mainly focus on Philippine issues and predictions of what might happen in the Philippines in 2009.
So, without further fanfare, I’d like to make 10 Predictions for 2009 in the Philippines. Some of these events may take years to actually be completed, but I believe that it is possible we will see steps toward this starting in 2009.
- Terrorism. Unfortunately, I feel that the Philippines is overdue for a serious terrorist event. I have a feeling that we will see something in this area in 2009. Over the past decade or more, there have been a number of serious threats that have been thwarted by the Philippines Government, this year things might not be so lucky. I am not talking about a hand grenade thrown at a bus terminal where people are injured. I feel that the Philippines is overdue for a serious attack that will leave at least 100 people dead. Most likely, an event like this would happen in Manila or somewhere in Mindanao, my feeling is Manila, because it is a more target rich place. I hope that I am incorrect on this, but I think that the odds are in favor of some kind of attack like this impacting the Philippines.
- Charter Change. The Philippines is gearing up to be a real battle ground in the fight to change the Constitution in 2009. Elections are scheduled to take place in 2010, and a lot of politicians who are facing term limits would love to change the constitution to allow for either longer terms in office, or additional terms. However, the public is strongly opposed to Charter Change, and a battle is looming on this front. A lot of indicators are showing that many politicians are targeting 2009 as the year to put all of this up for a vote. The public won’t stand for it, though, and this could lead to political unrest. If the politicians push this too far, it could even lead to another EDSA style action by the people. Keep a close eye on this one.
- Presidential Politics. As I said in #2 above, 2010 is election year in the Philippines. A lot of people are surprised that Gloria Arroyo as remained this long as President (I predict, BTW, that she will hold onto power until her term ends in 2010), and in 2009 the race for President in 2010 will start to clarify. My prediction here is that if the Charter Change movement plays out as it seems to be looking, a lot of politicians will be exposed for who they really are, and that may damage Presidential hopes for a number of these people. My feeling is that some non-traditional people will emerge as “Presidentiables” in 2009. I think that at least one religious leader will emerge as a Presidential Candidate in 2009. Also, look for a businessman step into the race. Trapo’s (Traditional Politicians) may fade, and leave the race to non-traditional hands. This could be the first step toward moving the Philippines away from corruption, and more toward stability and more democracy.
- Economics. The world will continue to spiral into economic turmoil in 2009, and I think that things will not improve next year, and possibly for several more years. However, the Philippines will remain relatively unscathed by the downturn that the world will be facing. There will be a slowdown in the Philippines, but growth will continue, albeit at a slower pace, and a recession (or depression) here will be avoided. In fact, as things spiral lower in the rest of the world, the Philippines may actually find ways to dominate. This would particularly happen in areas like outsourcing, call centers, bpo, and other such activities.
- Readdressing Lingual Education. With activities in business areas like call centers thriving in the Philippines, the Philippines will quickly find drastic shortages in it’s available labor pool. English speakers will be needed to fill these types of jobs, and they are quickly running out in the Philippines. This will cause further emphasis on teaching adequate English skills in the schools here. Possibly, legislation will be passed in this area in 2009. With or without the passing of legislation, this is a topic that will become more broadly discussed in the Philippines this coming year.
- Retirement & Expat Destination. With the United States and most of the world facing economic turmoil, a lot more people from these countries will start looking at becoming expats and living in other parts of the world. The Philippines will eventually benefit from this. We probably won’t start to see this too much in 2009, but the foundation will be laid for such a move. As more and more people in the developed world start to see that opportunities are limited where they are, they will start looking at making changes in their lives, and more and more of these people will start looking at moving to places like Mexico or the Philippines for a better lifestyle. This will eventually lead to the realization that in underdeveloped countries, there are many opportunities to earn a living, and a better lifestyle to boot. As this mindset develops, it will actually become a political issue in the United States, and lead to legislation in this regard.
- Mindanao Issue. With the Ancestral Domain issue blowing up politically in 2008, things are ripe for change in Mindanao starting in 2009. Right now, the common thinking would be that war is at hand in Mindanao. However, it is at times like this when Peace can be achieved more easily. There may be some blow-ups in the process, but such events may lead toward more urgency among the people talking peace. This could lead to a settlement between the Philippine Government and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front. It’s hard to know for sure what will happen, but I think we can all rest assured that something will happen – either a turn for the worse or the better. Mindanao is at a crossroad right now. In my mind, there are three possible paths for Mindanao. Firstly, battles, shootings and such could increase and lead to lawlessness in Mindanao. Second, such actions as mentioned previously could actually make peace more critical for both sides, leading to a further agreement, and a path toward ultimat peace. Third, a totally unconventional solution could be found by Mindanaoans themselves, leaving the Government totally out of it. The Mindanao Independence movement has grown a lot stronger over the past 5 years or so.
- Internet Business Use. Businesses in the Philippines are starting to understand that they can benefit from proper use of the Internet. Have you noticed that Philippine companies are even advertising on big sites like Facebook now? It’s true. This will gain steam in 2009, and we will start seeing the seeds of this happen in Philippine business. We may actually start seeing Philippine businesses answer e-mails and moving toward dominating markets on the Internet!
- Broadband Availability. The availability of broadband internet has improved greatly in the past 8 years that I have lived here. However, we have been seeing speeds like 200 to 300 Kbps. In the past months, we are starting to see companies experimenting with 1, 2 or 3 Mbps offerings, and I’ve even heard of some companies offering as much as 10 Mbps to home users! This will become more prevelant in 2009, and by the end of 2009 a 1 Mbps connection from your home will become more or less the standard for those with broadband.
- Pull back of US commitments. Over the past Century, we have seen the United States support the Philippines financially in many ways. The USA provides much of the military infrastructure that the Philippines uses, and also funds many programs for the Philippines. I believe that in 2009 we will start seeing this support start to fade. We may not see drastic cutbacks in such aid/support, but I think that the groundwork will be laid in 2009 for future cutbacks. The reason for such cutback is twofold. Firstly, the United States is facing troubled economic times, and needs to spend more money domestically, and that means less for foreign spending. Secondly, President Obama ran on promises of pulling back militarily from many parts of the world, and aiding the Philippines will probably be one of the things that will be cut.
OK, now you know my top 10 predictions for 2009 in the Philippines. Do you have predictions for the coming year? Why not share them in your comment below?
Hi Bob,
I personally see the Philippines as a safer and better place to retire then Mexico. The US government issued a travel advisory today on Mexico. It said stay close to established resort areas. It is really becoming a very dangerous place to go with all the murders and kidnappings. I hope there is not any problems in Mindinao in the coming years. I worry about my future family now and i kinda plan on retiring there. I just need to watch out for those terrorist mosquitoes.
Wishing you all a happy New Year.
Richard D
Hi Bob – Before I forget, "Manigong Bagong Taon!"
Quite a list there and, perhaps, quite a number of good possibilities. I'll go out on a limb with comments keyed to your predictions:
1) A large city would no doubt be a good target. I'd consider Cebu and Davao as having greater probability – they're closer to the sources of terror and before-the-fact discovery would have the element of transportation/travel/logisitics removed.
2) No Cha-Cha or Con-Ass without all holy hell breaking loose!
3) Politics as usual while "political families" remain among the powerful. Feudal Japan's irradication of offending clans is the only successful methodology employed in history – something unthinkable in this day and age.
4) Economics as usual (for same reason as #3).
5) Expect discussion and lots of it. Action, on the other hand, will favor those with money and power. While English is taught in elementary and high schools, I doubt that any improvements there (mandated or not) would be seen prior to any infrastructure improvements (building repairs, paintings, etc.).
6) Possible (at least for one person I know 😀 ) but not probable. Many are still choosing Mexico, Belize and other retirement havens to the south of the USA. Could be an uptick in retirees from Asian countries, however.
7) Along these lines, I'd include the Cordillera and Ilocandia. Many people in northern Luzon are tired of being ignored while the capital region / metro Manila area receive benefit.
8) Possible improvement planned until the next scam unfolds. Provincial and small urban users are turning from skepticism to cynicism in this regard.
9) Another "grease money" issue. (As you know, everything is tied together in the Phils.)
10) Don't see it happening as the Fil-Am voting block is becoming stronger in the US Democrat party. The failure of the USA taking care of Filipino vets is welding this structure into a future force to be reckoned with. Present US commitments help keep the Fil-Ams happy.
Quite a limb to be out on – hope my chainsaw doesn't slip! 😆
Bob, very insightful, I read your blog and we share many of the same predictions. One of the reasons I picked Cebu over Mindanao for my 2010 relocation is I sensed Mindanao is very ripe for the change you spoke of and to enable such change the conflict will get worse before it can get better. I think the past few years has seen the issue in remission but it is quickly coming to the foreground… I read the PI papers daily…
On the internet, I also agree in that area that english skills will be in demand. I was browsing the Cebu Craigslist for any opportunity and was blown away at all the US companies already outsourcing.. I recently saw that movie you recommended, very good…
Well, I need to finish my work day but very good article… enjoyed it much.
Bob: on the comment about Mexico, my last visit to Mexico City, armed guards were provided for my safety. Mexico has become very dangerous for foreigners and the situation is becoming worse every day. Yes, the RP has problems, but I have never once feared for my safety here.
Bob: another note on military aid… I believe it will reduce a bit, but not much. On my last visit to DC, that was sort of the consensus there. With Abu Sayaf and their ilk running around in Jolo, the "terrorism" label makes aid reductions on any great scale politically unwise.
Have to agree with paul on the politics as usual…power is the ultimate drug for people who possess it and i doubt very much if they will go down without a big fight, if its voted in they will find a way to tamper with the count.
I think the down turn of the world economy will affect the RP in due time, mostly form pinoys who live abroad who will cut back on the amount of availible money to send home.
Inso far as destinations the only hinderance from the USA is the distance . A good pal of mine just got back from a retirement scouting trip to Coasta Rica, was not favorable at all..in fact every place they stayed and every expat they talked to warned him not to go at out at night. Mexico? far worse than C-Rica. Also cost of living has gone up there. And he worries about the RP's terrorists threat!!!!
I think your right Bob about the possible terror target, Cebu is kinda of a common ground for every faction, as one pinoy mentioned , even they need a city they can freely raom in. Manila is the likely target …as u put , target rich enviroment, plus maximum psyc impact.
Inso far as world issues…2009 will be volatile, to many huge festering issues are coming to a head…I only hope Obama is as gifted intellectually as he is a orator.
Forgive me but I feel the need to firstly comment on your predictions and make a few of my own so this will be long…
Terrorisim – While I believe that there will be threats I believe the teeth have been pulled from the terrorist organizations with the fall of oil prices. There is alot less money available to them and couple that with the loss of their best leadership and they are just a shadow of what they once were. I don't see an attack of that proportions happening here.
Charter Change – Nothing to really comment here, I beleive you are spot on with this one. The people see charter change for what it really is and won't stand for it… but I wonder, are there any Ninoy Aquinos to step up and lead the revolution?
Presidential Race – The Illustrados will never give up power over here but they may borrow another American invention, the political machine. In this manner they can appear to support change of the status quo while still pulling the strings… "Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain."
Economics – This unfortunately is just the start of the depression. Yes I used the "D" word, I believe that by the end of 2009 we will be in a full fledged worldwide deression and the central banks can shovel all the money they want at it and that won't change a thing except to raise the specter of inflation. I predict by mid-year 2009 the Philippines will start feeling the crunch as less OFW jobs are avaialble and more OFW contracts start getting cancelled. While the call center business will not shrink, I don't look for massive expansion either. Obama also has some ideas about companies who outsource in the form of higer corporate taxes. If he implements this plan look for the call center industry to collapse.
Lingual Education – Wishful thinking, they already removed english from the curriculum of grade school. There seems to be a "Philippines First" mentality lately with the Illustrados in power plucking on the nationist chord. I see an opportunity for Private English teachers and schools but I don't look for a national trend towards better english teaching.
Retirement – Maybe yes, maybe not. Many people are faced with the complete destruction of their retirement funds in the US and are little prepared to move over here and start a new life. Also retirees living here already are feeling the pinch as their existing retirement funds are drying up and paying less. I look for a wave of expats going back to their home countries. In the long term the Philippines is still a good place to retire, but with high inflation it is not as financially attractive as it once was. The new desination seems to be Argentina, Stable Government, Strong Peso and a cost of living 1/3 of what it is here. Argentina also encourages retirees to live there and doesn't hobble foreign investment and ownership.
Mindano – Bob I'm going to accept what you have to say on this issue as I am not learned enough to comment on it… I just see more of the same stuff that has been going on for years.
Internet Business Use – Well if PLDT and others get their act together and start improving thier service then yes I agree with you. From my experince with PLDT here they have a long long way to go.
Broadband – I see more broadband available but from new sources such as wireless and cable. Sky has had a cable modem service for awhile now and as they run more fiber optic cables in town they will be in a better position to offer true broadband.
Pull back of US – All politicians are liars wherever they come from. Obama is going to find that talking about a job and doing it are 2 different things. Israel has seen the writing on the wall and expects to be thrown to the wolves after Obama comes into office and is currently flexing their muscles. I feel if Obama truly does pull the US out of the worldwide picture we are going to have warfare on a worldwide scale.
So where does this leave us? My predictions –
Deflation – In the short term I see alot of deflationary pressure on the dollar. Trillions of dollars literally dissappeared and as we move into 2009 the next wave of ARM rate resets are due. This is potential tsunami as there are 10x the number of resets this year than there were last year. The .gov answer will be more bailouts but it's too little too late. With less spending money available prices will fall on real estate and consumer goods, but inflate on foodstuffs.
Peso – The peso rally was short lived, brought about by OFW remittances during the holidays but against a deflationary dollar I see the exchange rate falling to 55-60:$1 by August.
Presidency (US) – Obama made alot of promises durng the campaign but many will be hard to meet. I do believe he will lighten our commitment in Iraq but he cannot simply pull out and there is the war in Afghanistan to consider. Obama will still need to appear strong in the face of pressure from Iran and there is Russia hiding in the background as well. Russia is one pissed off bear right now who has lost the majority of it's national income. When faced with another economic disaster they may feel war is an option to regain some of their lost profligate empire. There is no doubt Obama has the worst situation even faced by a president, many say he is ineperienced but this may work in his favour. Since he not entrenched in Potomac Politics he may be able to see solutions that others ignore.
With the worldwide slide into Depression I see 2009 as the year of tears. It will be akin to the early 1930's as the Great Depression deepend until it finally hit rock bottom in 1932. People in Western countries are going to have to give up the me first, instant gratification personality as survival takes precedence over who has the largest TV on the block. The ultimate culmination of the Great Depression was dictatorship and world war, but the generation that came out of it were hardier for the experience and never forgot the want of starvation.
Money – My final prediction is more of a long term thing over the next 5 years. I think we are seeing the death throws of the fiat monetary system. As central banks pump more and more money into their governments that will put inflationary pressure on the world currencies. Runaway inflation is a real threat as central banks lose control of the situation and the ultimate loss will be the dollar as we know it. I see a time in the future when countries are going to realize that the only true money is the old standbys Gold and Silver. Paper is just that, and throughout history we have seen what happens when paper currencies fail. Weimar Germany, post WWII Hungary, Yugoslavia in the 1990's and now Zimbabwe which has taken the cake and has the worst inflation in history (15 BILLION % per annum). I am certainly putting some of my money into Gold and Silver as a hedge against inflation.
Hi Bob,
Here are some of my 10 predictions for 2009.
1. There will a lot of OFW's laid off and returning to the Philippines.
2. The government will have a growing deficit and find it difficult to subsidize rice for the urban poor.
3. Inflation will increase, the cost of food will rise.
4. Expect a lot of labour unrest as unions try to get higher pay for workers despite rising unemployment.
5. Micro-credit and private lending will dry up as OFW remittances collapse.
6. A temporary agreement will be reached regarding the Bangsomoro Homeland pending final ratification by the new government in 2010.
7. China will try to push out the U.S. as the Philippines main benefactor and foreign aid supplier in return for first rights to mining/forestry concessions.
8. The Philippine government will revert back to English as the main medium of instruction for all grades in the school system to give the Philippines an edge as the business gateway to Asia.
9. Mindanao will experience a major foreign investment boom in agriculture and mining with the signing of a ceasefire with MILF.
10. Davao City will be the main recipient of a wave of Filipino balikbayans returning to live permanently in the Philippines after retiring or losing their jobs in the West. The main reason will be the safety of Davao combined with being as far away as possible from money-requesting relatives.
There you have it. We'll have to see how things turn out a year from now!
Happy New Year to you and your family! Keep up the great work!
Hi Bob
I do believe that Mindanao is in a crossroad with a potential to worsen because of the failed talks. I do believe that the Philippine military is better prepared for it. There is always a danger for terrorism, but I think it is unlikely a major terrorist attack will occur next year. Charter Change will never get anywhere because the Senate is completely opposed to it (only the House is for it), it will go nowhere. Yes the politicians are already getting ready for the 2010 presidential elections with the likely contenders being De Castro, Roxas, Legarda, and the strongest candidate Villar who also runs a large real estate company. I dont see any religious leaders being a contender. The economy will slow quite a bit, but will not go into a recession like the first world countries, but because the Philippines has a higher inflation rate (or maybe a more correctly determined inflation, since the U.S. excludes certain things like fuel). It has also a faster growing population where if the economy grows 3-4% a year, you will not see any significant improvement in the people's life. You really need 6-7% growth over many years. So it may still feel like a recession to many people. The U.S.does not give that much to the Philippines compared to other countrie, mainly supporting the military which I see continuing at the same rate. China is making inroads but there is a lot of corruption in terms of loans like the northrail and NBN deals and loans. I do see a resentment by the Filipino people due to this plus the general opinion of Chinese-Filipino business people. English will be given a priority in teaching as this allows the Filipinos to stand out in the job market compared to other countries. I dont see any significant increase in retirees in the Philippines until they set up retirement centers that will have 1st world accomadations and health facilities and a low cost. Mexico is a top destination in part because of its proximity to the U.S.
I predict that I will be there next year 🙂 🙂 Phil n Jess
Hey Bob good morning to you , hows the weather there now .
deflation is a temporary effect at the moment, inflation will prevail in the not to distant future with the current currency manipulation its almost inevitable. Since my brother lives in Thailand I have in the last few months wired funds for gold purchase, (the buy sell transaction percentage charge is minimal compared to that in US ) which I have stored at CB Lockers which I feel is safer than the GLD ,ETF availible in the USA. I think your 100% correct Doc on your assumption of the state of Russia and our Country headed for a depression.I fear the current generations do not have the capacity to stand in soup lines after years of having it easy, in the 1930's people belived in thier Country and Government….both of which are a virtual voids with people today we could very well see some inner turmoil if it gets real bad. Nixon did a great disservice when he did away with the gold system, wall streets glutany of greed may have finacially done us in for a bit.
Hi Bob,
The Philippines could have a strong retirement industry boosting economic growth and investment if they allowed foreign ownership and gave non citizens the same legal rights as filipinos. However I don't think many people will retire to the RP while their xenophobic laws and attitudes remain. I would love to move to Bali for example but the same small minded laws prevail there.
If anything the reductions in superannuation and investments available for retirement as a result of the financial crisis could have driven more people to seek a lower cost retirement destination such as the RP rather than less.
Recession and depression will throw many OSW's out of work but I don't think they will bring much back – their families have already bled most of them dry. This will impact badly on the RP as will the heavy contraction of outsourcing to the RP.
My tip … economic and political chaos could be just around the corner as the government takes its eyes off the economy and chacha becomes the focus for selfish politicians.
Islamic militancy will increase fuelled by withdrawals from Iraq, eventual defeat of the West in Afganistan and growing isolation and lack of support for Israel fuelled by its continuing brutal colonisation of what is left of Palestine. These events coupled with Obama's likely gradual withdrawal of the US from its world policeman/bullyboy role (whichever way you see it) will embolden the struggle for independence in Mindanao.
@Bob – True oil is higher now than before 9/11 the difference is that every oil producing country in the world spent and loaned money based on 2009 exports of oil at $120 barrel… now it's $35 and the economic shortfall is brobdinagian in proportions.
Don't worry too much about the cable modem. I had it when I lived in Insular Village II and it had an even worse speed than the DSL I have now.
Retirement – Perhaps you missed the ultimate point of words, how can anyone even think of retiring abroad or at home, if they have lost 80% of their 401k?
Peso – I'm putting my money where my mouth is. August would be a perfect time for a 55-60 peso dollar as that's when I get back from working in Alaska 😉
Money – Gold and silver are the true safe harbours of wealth. They are not money makers in and of themselves they simply preserve value in the face of inflation. Gold is at $880/ounce IF you can even find it. The value has gone down lately off the high of $1000/ounce because of hedge funds and REIT's unwinding their assets. Look for a slow recovery over the next 2 quarters and a quickening pace thereafter. I don't know if this is still the norm, but it used to be in Vietnam that real estate was valued and priced in "Taels" of Gold ( a Tael being 50 grams I beleive). They did this because of the high rate of inflation on the Dong ( 17,200 Dong to the Dollar ). Vietnam realizes that Gold and Silver are real money and paper is just "promise".
Wow… fearless forecasts, Bob. I'm sure w/ the coming Lunar new year, chinese gurus would have their series of tv guestings giving their predictions as well. Let's not forget Madam Auring. Indulge me w/ some retrospect in the face of the comments I just read.
Growing up in the 70s, I remember choreographers of latest dance craze in TV went around in TV shows giving their predictions as well. They would go this year, we will see more of this…(Then they would demonstrate some dance steps). Fashion designers also do this forecasting in TV. As for my fearless forecast, I think it will be another year like no other as usual! Happy New Year to all!
Maayong buntag, Bob. Grim prediction or not for 2009, we all just have to carry on, as usual. We all have no firm control over what's going to happen. We can only pray and hope for the best.
Hi, Michael (that good looking Aussie above)
Indeed, you're right in saying that Philippines laws are xenophobic and biased. I've been living in Spain for three decades and since Spain joined the EU in 1986, things changed for the people here. They also allowed anyone to buy real estate–no restrictions—but utter corruption also followed over the years. Today, many of those foreigners who have invested their life savings for a villa with hue garden and pool have gone back to their respective countries. Those gorgeous mansions with all amenities have been buldosed—I repeat–buldosed—up and down this country.Why? They were built illegally by developers who were constantly taking advantage of wealthy elderly Brits, Scandinavians, Germans, Dutch, French. Thousands to date, have already been demolished. Many of these wealthy retirees have been left with nothing but misery. Good thing, where they come from, their governmens provide a safety net for them. In the case of the Philippines, they are trying to be cautious knowing that if they simply open up real estate to tom, dick and harry, problems would arise before they could even count from 1 to 10. There are many bad things to say about the administration of the day, but it is also true that they have put a lot of effort to make the country worthwhile. If they are slow in applying the "big" things, it's because eastern culture is different. Should they take advice from the likes of R Madoff, who has been ripping and conning the world for almost two decades? Why was the West toooooo slow to spot his breathtaking corruption? Europe has largescale corruption but because these countries are considered "First World countries", no one seems to bother accepting that reality.
Hi, Bob! I am indeed awake. Oh, you, my friend, is the voice of reason! Take care now, Hill
Hi Hill,
I agree that along with equal legal rights for all residents a dose of good governance would be required before there would be any trust in property dealings. I have read the stories about even government owned land being illegally subdivided and sold in the Philippines resulting in worthless titles. But there is also a warning even in Australia where property laws are transparent …. "let the buyer beware".
We had a lot of greedy Japanese get burnt by speculating in property in northern Australia – not from legal issues but from paying prices for real estate which were a bargain in terms of Japanese prices but grossly inflated in Australian terms. The lesson is a fool will always be parted from his money no matter where he is.
"We’ve had it pretty hard here lately, weather-wise. I think it was down below 80F one night recently!"
your cruel Bob….rrreeeaaaalllllllyyyyyy cruel !
well, let's see now, If I give my 2 cents , I think that if the government opens up land to foreign buyer then the people who own land now will sell for the money and then you will have a big influx of poor people coming to the cities for food cause they sold there only means to eat .. I think just leave it the way it is ..cause no matter what you do it will cause more corruption in the country …Phil n Jess
Hi, again, Michael,
yes, I agree with you wholeheartedly. Do you know that here, our ex-mayor has jsut been released from jail although he still has 125 pending charges—-and al to do with real estate coruption? Up and down this archipelago, the government authorities have been rounding up all elected city and town mayors because of unimaginable corruption: civil servants conniving with legitimate and illegitimate developers. Now, the current Andalucian government has had to right a wrong—which has been going on here for 25 years! Many of these corrupt civil/public servants have been thrown in jail and never to be functionaries again. The greenbelt areas in this once beautiful landscape have been totally destroyed by greedy developers, and why not, since the people approving all the land and developments deals are or were greedy, corrupt city/townhall officials. I shake my head in disbelief at the wanton destruction of Andalucia, in particular, this resort town. Our high profile long-time resident, Sean Connery couldn't bear it any longer so he left and went to the Caribbean. The sheer destruction of the forests and other green belt areas have taken its toll on many celebrities living here—Nowadays, the town hall coulnd't even clean up dog poop that is so prevalent on our sidewalks here because of lack of funds. As for the current administration of the day, they now have concrete plans to rehouse and resettle all those living along the river banks, motorways, creeks, having set aside a fairly good amount of P3 billion pesos. Believe me Michael, they are serious about it. Let's hope they are. No, I'm not a fan of politicians, but when they do good things, I give credit where credit is due.
It should have been, "…as for the current administration of the day in the Philippines….."
Hi, Phil n Jess, that very happy couple above!
I really like your one-liners! Happy New Year to you both. Regards, Hill
Bob, that's a great list of predictions with plenty of brain juice put into it. Thanks! I'm hoping for further improvement in internet speeds and service, especially wireless like 3G. Planning to move to a special place in Palawan later next year where that would come in handy.
(P.S. When will you finally install a 'Notify me of further comments in this thread' plugin??) 😉
with 2009 being a year before the 2010 elections, you will see politicians jostling for higher profile and with cha-cha being the hot topic, there will be a clearer look on where the top candidates stand. Man, the charter is so vastly flawed but the trust factor between people & their leaders are so damaged. It may take a new generation to improve it.
though i still am not inspired by the current contenders, in a matter of perspective, the current list of possible candidates is vastly superior to previous elections.
You don't have any of them riding on a celebrity status and an empty resume ( movie stars FPJ, Sotto, Erap, a cultish following like Imelda or even Cory Aquino, who admittedly was more of a symbolic icon than any previous accomplishments). The closest would be Loren Legarda, but even she has built a bit of a resume & was a respected journalist.
Davao is having such a rapid building boom that it slightly scares me, having gone through the rise & fall of California's housing boom. With SM, Ayala, Robinson's & now NCCC committed to Northern Davao (Lanang/Bajada), I am not sure if this is good for the city. There will be a rise in value of land & an uptick in employment. But someone's got to lose in this race. There will also be a rise in inflation, the economy flat lining & a growing traffic problem. I hope the local gov't sees what I see & has a plan for all this.
Then there is the local race. Where a second generation of 2 prominent Davao political families ascending & looking to match up in the local election scene. It will be exciting to watch, but I am hoping for a more diplomatic & proper debate between the newer generation. I am familiar with this new crop & hope they don't fall prey to the usual mud-slinging.
by the way, on the mexico safety comments. there are some valid points. but those living in mindanao are well aware that what may be written on the papers can be very different on the ground.
i am currently living in mexico & was at first concerned the current news. but i should know by now, not every place is bad news. i live in central mexico which is not a hot spot & have felt extremely safe here.
I've lived in various places all over the world now and find san miguel de allende (the city i live in) the safest place i've ever lived in. no trace of the drug war, crime or any of the problems beseeching the country in the news. the state i live in is teeming with americans & canadians (further hampering my learning spanish).
there is a synergy between expat & locals. no culture tension from what i have witnessed so far.
that old mantra of doing your research & picking your spots certainly apply here. i know where to go & familiar where there is a drug war going on (remember, this country is huge!). literally like a peaceful davao in a messy mindanao.
the locals here are so in tuned with what the expats need or accustomed to that i keep wishing that davao can learn a few things i am seeing here. i am slowly accumulating what is succeeding here just in case i can spot a service that can be brought to davao.
finally, all of this cements my belief in not believing a certain caricature of a whole country like so many do of my own home island.
haha, bob. your local elections question gave me a good chuckle. i do remember mentioning some family ties during our dinner. still, i'm not the type who is easily tied to clan loyalty, which is normally the case in mindanao politics. that's old politics, i'd like pinoys to do the research, look at the issues & think for themselves now.
in fact, i am quite critical of both sides & prefer that a candidate earn my vote.
to be honest, that one side is practically like family, but they have to know that personal relations & social beliefs are exclusive ideals. that's how a mature democracy works. oh how i look forward to some healthy debates & fun questions with the guys when i get home, probably during a beach outing or a house party 🙂
— i was quite active in U.P. student politics when i was there (you may be surprised what position i held, haha) & was inspired to see young filipino leaders from all over the country in heated debates (UP radical leftists v. UP centrists) & still share a beer afterwards. it was refreshing that nothing was taken personally (there is hope!).
so, to answer your question, i have not sided with anyone yet. they're still young & have a year still to prove themselves. my advantage is that i know the actors in this play quite well personally. i hope they don't feel obligated to be clones of the past generation & show some independence.
Hi, Bob, A VERY HAPPY NEW YEAR TO YOU AND YOUR FAMILY!
Hi, Macky, Happy New year to you, too! It has taken me a few weeks to realise you're Pinoy after all—perhaps, I was just being too cautious or because your English is fantastic, your humour even more fantastic…Anyway, you mentioned UP, hahaha, in the old old days, three first cousins of mine were professors there. One used to have a "high profile" so to speak…and quite a handful of them studying there have either become colleagues somewhere in Makati, or are now doctors, one is actually living in Davao! Anyway, no, I didn't go to UP, but all I can say is, I am an Atenean—I don't know if that means anything to you nowadays—it really doesn't, in my case. Still, as my husband would always say, "it all boils down to having money in the pocket…" but he does believe that a good university'college education is verrrrry important. Regards, Hill
Sorry to be pedantic but Saudi money funded 9/11, for the most part. I don't recall poppies growing in Saudi Arabia but there is oil out the wazoo.
Bob, the plan to move to Palawan is in my head already a few years. At least to do it for a few months before exploring other parts of the Philippines for a while longer. My previous short visits didn't satisfy my passion for your host country. But so far either the timing wasn't right, the missus didn't agree (pssst!) or I felt so comfortable in the current country. But slowly the light at the end of the tunnel is becoming more crisp and clear…… 😉
Hi, Bob!
I predict I will continue enjoying the articles posted in "Live in the Philippines!" throughout 2009! 😀
A BLESSED NEW YEAR to EVERYONE!!!
Hi nomad4ever – Well, I think you'll find some nice places in Palawan. If you happen to make it down to Davao, let's plan to get together!
Hi JR Tingson – Hey, I like that prediction!
Will do – thanks for the offer!
I honestly don't know enough about the Philippine culture and economy to have a clue about a lot of those specifics. I have kinda put off writing anything here as I wasn't sure what to say.
As for terrorism in general lets just say that governments everywhere want someone else to blame their problems on and with all the economic problems I expect an upswing for sure. Just hope it doesn't get into the area I'm moving too as it did 20 years ago I'm told.
On the economy worldwide its gonna be bad and get much worse. At first I was worried about what little savings I have being eaten up by runaway inflation but then I read a really eye opening article on the subject by someone who seems to know what he is talking about. He claims and after reading about it I can see his point that when you borrow more money you don't get inflation unless its a temporary bump you get deflation as you have less real money to spend after paying interest. That puts a different perspective on things.
Now I just have to worry whether my bank will go insolvent or should I take out what little I have and sit on it? He did predict swings in the currency rates as the crowd goes back and forth but thought the dollar would do well against other currencies as almost every other country is in worse shape. He specifically mentioned England and the EU as having worse debt problems than the US and China having massive overcapacity that will have to be mothballed at best. A quote "I see the potential for the pound and euro to both reach par with the dollar, although I'm not going to go that far out on the tree limb and predict it – yet."
Anyway he had a 13 1/2 out of 16 predictions that came about from last year and several of them were way beyond his predictions. However I noticed the ones he missed were political not economic. His predictions for this year are really interesting have a look.
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/2007/12/year-i…
hola bob – regarding your question. nope, i doubt the current generation is going away (though that one health rumor also doesn't seem to go away).
we both agree that the next generation seem to be moving up. on the surface, it is a tad disheartening to see family dynasties take hold in davao. but at least this group (2 of them anyway) have solid educational backgrounds & a growing political experience. at least it's not just a freebie/"thanksdad" things that we see in other provinces (kewword: antipolo golf).
i hope i'm not too specific here, knowing that you want to appear neutral (i guess for my sake too).
hi hill roberts – thank you for the kind words & the warm greetings. yes, i'm pinoy & very dabawenyo (you can click my name to see). happy new year to you, too.
there are quite a few pinoys who speak ok english but you probably already know that (forgive me if am not familiar with your background). though right now, i wish i spoke better spanish since i keep ordering the wrong thing here in mexico (note to self: ensalada is not enchilada).
the ateneo, UP thing is not a big deal for me. i actually spent my high school in ateneo de davao but don't consider myself an atenean. I'm not a UP maroon either since I did not finish there. heck, i even rooted for La Salle basketball in the 90s. that's not even the complete list. sign me up for mixed bag university homecoming.
aayong buntag, Bob, from cold and wet Spain!
Good to know you keep everyone posted abroad regarding politics there. Somehow, I've forgotten how they've behaved, especially those with powerful family background. Now that I got back my Philippine nationality, I should really remember voting Tip us all off on "who's who".
Hi, Macky, maayong buntag also. I like that caricature you drew of yourself, if that's half of you! Anyway it figures why we both sound dysfunctional. Remember the running joke, Ateneo vs La Salle?
Ateneo: toh plus toh equals pour
La Salle: two plus two equals three
As for my three first cousins who taught at UP (two sisters and a brother) they are now all retired. They may be biologically related (their father and my mother were brother and sister) but we are in no way friends. They are the snobbish type, which puts me off completely…quack, quack…
Macky, i clicked away and found some fine, fine work of art there! What a coincidence. An English friend of ours and one-time nextdoor neighbour is also an illustrator. His name is Tony Hutchings and his work takes him to the States. That's where he makes his money. He also makes Christmas cards. Once, he knocked on the door and asked me to write a children's book and he'd do the illustrations. When I mentioned it to my husband, he asked if he offered some form of compensation! Frankly, I was about to say yes but my husband, the Brit that he is, and a former businessman himself, told me: "He wants you to write and no offers of payment?" That was the end of my near-miss as a writer for
children's books. he offered three times, and I was too naive or embarrassed to ask for a contract. This offer from him came during the 80's. Anyway, take care now and all the best for 2009.
Hi Macky! I enjoyed what you shared about Mexico. Although the bad publicity makes it clear that the safety issues are in the south of the border, Mexico remains one latino country that I would love to visit yet I can't, not not w/o serious reservations. What you said about synergy about locals & expats opens my mind to some possibilities. It is interesting how San Miguel de Allende has none of the drugs and killings of Tijuana. May I now what demographics comprise expats there? Are they largely retirees? Thanks!
well, this is a first. getting some pleasant comments from 3 different people on one post.
Hi Bob – Thanks for considering my position as one of the two groups are really like family (for a time I even thought we were related). Still my opinions don't need any hiding. I'm very upfront about them & I do try to listen to both sides of an argument & try to be fair about it.
Yes, I heard about the Mayor/Vice Mayor swap (i've heard a few other things too 😉 ) , regardless of what the Mayor decides I don't see him fading into the sunset. I still expect him to be a powerful & influential presence.
I only wish both sides can bury the hatchet or at least find a way to work together. They each have their own strengths & weaknesses, but they are really good at what they do best. Both are such assets to the city.
Hi Hill Roberts – thanks again for the compliments. glad you enjoyed my artwork & I have been fortunate enough to be getting a lot of work now & the next few years. Too bad on the writing thing, but it shouldn't be your last chance. That also should be a precautionary tale for me as I keep holding back on requests by publishers to write my own stuff. ah, maybe later this year….maybe.
Hi Roy – I'll try to keep this short as I hate to hijack the post (it is still expat related though, Bob). I know what you mean about Mexico safety especially on the borders. I recently lived in San Diego for a couple years (still own a place there – ouch) and occasionally drove down past Tijuana towards the Baja Mexico coastal towns. You could feel the tension there.
But SMA & the state of Guanajuato feels extremely safe & seems like another world to Baja Mex. Regarding your question, the expat community here is largely Canadian & American retirees, a few French & one Filipino couple with a dog. The expat population grows during the cold season as the "snowbirds" come down & enjoy their investments here. It is largely spanish colonial art & culture town & we discovered it via the yahoo top 10 best cities for art (the rest are the usual Florence, Paris, NY etc). I seem to see it as the Baguio of Mexico (its is on a mountain with a steady climate).
I keep trying to look for any signs of tensions between the locals & the large expat population. But I've see none & seem to enjoy the assimilation. In fact, a mixed group just recently protested an opening of a starbucks in the city center because it would dilute the town's design & history.
If you want to see pics, just shoot me an email. I'll send you a link of our travel photo blog that my wife & i maintain. my emails on my website. just select "what i do" on my blog.
Apologies on the detour, Bob. still, expat related though, eh?
Thanks Macky! For a moment, I didn't how to email you. Then I clicked on you name & voila, it brought me to your blog I'll enjoy it at a much unhurried time.
Thanks too Bob!
Hey Bob, I didnt have a chance to come and see you while I was in the phil for the last 6 months, but I will tell you that you and your site made several things alot easier for me there. I returned to the US on dec 2nd. What a mess it is here, a real mess. I am returning to the phil on june 23rd 2009 to live for good. I had the time of my life there. I will say that it took about 1 month to adjust, it was very hard in the beginning for me, but soon became very enjoyable. I have a pension of $2750. but used only $1600 of it due to US obligations. That gave me around 72k php to 81k php, which was plenty of money, even living in a very expensive area that I lived. I lived int a place called Eastwood City, Libis, QC. I had a 6 month lease on a condo there for 20k php per month w/ 40k php deposit,, my aircon was on average 4k php per month, I ran the aircon for about 12hours per day, my water was only about 200php, I had a maid and paid her well 4k php, we had a outside laundry service at about 28php per kilo and I spent about 600php to 1000php per day for food, I always ate out and never cooked at home, I went to the movies at about 150php to 180php per show and of course usually had a guest…….I went to the internet cafes alot coz my laptop was in the US, I spent approx 50php to 70php per hour…..most of these prices are very expensive and I know this, but after Makati and the Greenbelt areas and maybe 2 other areas, my place was the most expensive to live. So…I am very excited to move somewhere alittle less expensive. I visitied Baguio City and Subic Bay, thats about it. Thanks for everything Bob, Happy New Year…by the way, im the retired Deputy Sheriff from Los Angeles California
Hi Bob,
Sorry I haven't had time to address these predictions in detail/ I see very little that I would judge you to be off on at all, so although I fervently hope you are wrong on number one, let's get cracking on 2009 … it's going to be a great year.
I did chuckle some time back when I first read this becuase you introduce the term "trapo", which of course will be a new one to many foreigners. It's actually a bit of an amazement when you find a politician who _isn't_ filling his father's or mother's or uncle's or even a brother or sister's seat.
I also chuckle when I hear foreigners say Filipinos don't have a sense of humor. Perhaps you already knew this and didn't want to spoil the flow of the article, but I notice no one else picked up on it.
The term for the traditional politicians originally advanced by scholars and editorial writers was "tradpol" … traditional politician. But as many know and all who come here will learn, Filipinos absolutely love to play with words. The word 'trapo' is Tagalog for a rag, especially an old, worn out and dirty rag like you might use to clean the floor. So I doubt you'll ever find 'tradpol' used in print anywhere, it's much more fun to write an editorial and call the politicians 'trapos' … old dirty rags.
And just to make it a little more funny … I looked this up to make sure I had the spelling and meanings right … a secondary definition of 'trapo' is to play a joke on someone … and a third obscure meanaing is to scold or repremand. As many people might want to do to a politician, but never would out of respect for the office or delicadeza 😉
This just makes me laugh in about three different dimensions … it's a not so secret joke on everyone … I love it.
i just want to ask what will be the projected life of small business in the Philippines this year 2009?? can you please help me about it.. i really needed an answer now… thank you so much..
This is for Mr. Michael Severy…try to look and visit Puerto Galera sir..its a nice
place for vacation and to live…mostly the hotels there owned by a foriegners sir.
And its quiet fresh air and cheap place to live .
Have a great life here in Phils.
Hi!Some of your words might come true but I do not believe all the words what you have said. I believe the U.S. will continue to help the Philippines since its rich of natural resources can give benefits to the US as business partner. I believe there is a great change in the Philippines for the coming years. Many politicians are afraid to corrupt the money of government for some of the politicians are already exposed with their bad doings and the cause of graft of corruption. I think many foreigners will live in the Philippines. I agree that they should allow the investors to invest in the Phils. with lots of benefits and will give priority to the filipinos who seek jobs. It is better that some filipinos will come back to stay in the Philippines to take care their children and old parents. I believe that God has a good plan for the Philippines. Pili means choosen while Pino means fine. The choosen people. I hope the filipino will help one another for the future of our country,children and to help the needy. Have you heard about Deuterium in the Philippines?
i wonder f u know how many people who lives in the Philippines this tear 2009………….because i was have an assignment in that topic
Hi kim – the population of the Philippines is around 90 million.
Hi Bob,
Keep up!!! I will vote your for congressman of the Philippines.
Hi Voncir – Ha ha… better make it a write in vote, since I would never be running! 😆
Hi Bob, if you happen to be a filipino citizen in the future and run for mayor in your place you have one vote from me ha-ha, im serious and we can invite one republican from washington as guest?
Hi Perry – Ha ha… I doubt that will ever happen!
hi, I like your website. I found your site last year and i fond reading on it.
Thank you Ester. Please keep visiting!
I think my prediction was the sadness yr by the number of 11 double catastrophe,a manmade catastrophe and natural disaster. The economy power will be shipting to Asia as prosperous, but huge natural catastrophe that shaken the entire Asian will be happening first . Huge earthquake, tidal waves, spreading deaseas that created by human will be happening soon,
The world economy will be w shape the oil bring the entire nation disaster all prices of food are double, inflation are coming soon again, there is two powerful group country that started the new war.and spreading the other continent.
Uh… OK. Easy to predict after it happens, though.