OK, let’s get a little controversial today and spice up the site! Any discussion about Climate Change can blow up into a flame war, right? Well, I wanted to write about this topic, but I would first like to ask that anybody leaving comments, please be civil. We can disagree in an agreeable way, right?
OK, so the “hot” topic (pun intended) all around the world these days is “Global Warming,” or “Climate Change,” right? Well, before I look at how that might affect the Philippines, let me first lay down my views on the topic in general. At this point, I believe that there is enough evidence in front of us that almost all of us can agree that our world climate is changing. Now, personally, I believe that this change is natural, and not man-made. All of the experts agree that over the course of history we have seen swings in the world’s climate. We have gone through ice ages, and we have gone through heat waves. None of these have ever been caused by man, they have simply been the way that nature works. I personally believe that we are in such a swing of nature right now.
Back in the 1970’s Newsweek Magazine (a US publication) actually did an article called “The coming ice age,” in which they speculated that we were on the verge of another ice age where the earth’s climate would cool dramatically! Here we are just a short 20 to 30 years later and everybody is running around saying the opposite. What proof is there that man’s actions caused the current weather changes? To me, there is really no proof, just a lot of speculation.
Anyway, now you know where I stand, but how will it affect the Philippines? Nobody can say for sure, but I will look at a few things. Firstly, I think that the name “Global Warming” is really a misnomer, because some places are actually cooling! Yes, some places are warming, but how often do we hear about “the coldest winter on record” or something along those lines? Did you know that there is a lot of talk currently going on in the Philippines about our climate getting cooler lately? It’s true! A few weeks ago, when I saw the weather report on TV they were even talking about a “Cold Front” coming through that would drop temperatures considerably. This morning, when I got up, I went into the bathroom, in which the window is always open, and it was quite cool in there! So, is it possible that as climate change progresses, the Philippines could actually encounter a drop in temperature? I think that is a possibility. A small drop in temperature would indeed make it more comfortable here, but I hope it would not drop too much! I hope that it also wil not become an environment of many rainy days and such. I enjoy the sunshine and a bit of heat!
Another thing that, under the gloom and doom forecast, could drastically affect the Philippines is the whole scenario of the icebergs melting and raising the ocean level. You’ve heard all the talk about this, right? They say that when the icebergs melt, the level of the ocean will be dramatically higher, and any coastal areas will be hit hard by this. Well, as a nation of islands, the Philippines could be hit terribly if such a forecast was true. However, I do not buy this theory. Why? Think about the things that we have learned in the past. Firstly, I think we all know that if water freezes, it becomes a larger mass. For example, if you fill an ice cube tray to the brim, when it freezes the ice will actually overflow the tray. So, a block of solid ice is larger than the size that the liquid water would fill. Also, we have heard that the part of icebergs that we can actually see is only the “tip” of the iceberg. The tip is only a tiny percentage of the iceberg as a whole. Now, think about it… if the iceberg melts and becomes water, that entire mass of ice (including the part under the water, which is huge) will become smaller! So, the small amount of ice that is above the water, will simply blend into the water and be smaller. Thus, I believe, the level of the ocean would not go higher, but might actually go lower instead! I find it strange that I have never heard anybody look at this possibility.
Whatever may happen in the future with our climate, I believe that the Philippines will survive, and that those of us who live here will be safe. Perhaps if some areas of the world keep getting a bit warmer, our friends back in our old homes will come to enjoy the type of weather that we have had since moving to the Philippines. The coming years and decades will indeed be interesting to watch, though. My belief is that in 20 years we will look back at the past decade and realize how wrong the forecasts were. One thing is certain, though, in 20 years from now we will know more about what is going on with the weather!
Hi, Bob. I too don't believe in climate change but "just in case" the Nobel Prize winner, Al Gore, is right…it's not bad either for the air quality to practise "green".
CNBC just reported that a town in Sicily got rid of their 2 Garbage trucks (costing $240,000 each) and replace them with 6 donkeys (costing $1700 each).
I was just thinking, next time you pass by Iligan you may want to take a picture and write something about the "tartanilya" (kalesa in Tagalog). They used to be the mode of transport in Cebu, CDO and Davao in the 60's…I think there are still some in Bankerohan.
If the Philippines go back to the tartanilya and get rid of the jeepneys, then it will really be a green country once again.
Hi Dr. Long – I'm afraid that the tartanilla's are all gone from Davao already! There indeed are still a few in Iligan, though. But, I don't know if it would be green to go back to those…. you know, the environmentalists all complain about methane gas from cows. I would have to imagine that horses have the same problem, although I am not certain! 😆
Bob,
Two winters ago here in New Zealand we had about 23 frosts which apparently broke all the previous records. Then this last winter we only had about 3 frosts but it turned out to be a long dreary cold winter with cold weather coming up from the Antarctic.
In my garden I have two plum trees. Last year I was eating those plums in November. This year . . . . well the plums haven't even started to ripen yet, they are green and not only that the fruit is going to be very small, and here we are in December. Last summer, when it finally arrived, it lasted for all of about 1 month, in late February. Who knows about this year but we did have 3 days last month where the temperatures were the highest for a November.
Personally I think the global warming issue is "a crock", but if they can make money out of it they will push it for all its worth. The housing bubble has broken, so watch them push the new bubble. Already the government here a few years ago tryed to impose on farmers "A fart tax" because this country (NZ) has a high number of cows. The farmers fought it and won but already the government has found another way to extract tax on based on carbon emissions. And I see that people are beginning to trade "carbon credits" on websites.
Actually they tell us that trees soak up carbon and this country has a huge amount of trees from forestry to cities with thousands of trees. Yet according to the number crunchers we emit more carbon than we soak up. So based on the Kyoto Protocol this country has to pay the difference based on the crazy maths that we put out more carbon than we use up. Who's coffers are being enriched?
Yes I believe the weather is changing but I believe what the bible says in Isaiah 51:6 " and the earth shall wax old like a garment, and they that dwell therein shall die in like manner".
Oh man. Based on the title alone, I was all ready to dive in here and say "For once! I emphatically disagree with Bob on something, and here's why!" only to be disappointed again 😉
C'mon, you're killing me here. Keep running down the list, there's bound to be something…
Hi Richard – Yeah, I think we can mostly agree that there are changes in the weather and such. But, there are cold spells just as much as heat waves! This makes it hard to believe that all of the doomsayers have it just right.
Hi RichardInSC – Ha ha… I got you! Again! 😆
Hi Bob — you probably already know that we have differing views on global warming. but that's not why im writing. i feel very strongly about my opinion on this and im sure you do to. everyone's entitled to their own opinion and i respect that.
one thing that all this climate talk is bringing to the table is increased awareness of the environment. wherever a person's belief falls on this discussion, at least we can all agree that conservation, recycling and taking better care of the environment is a good thing (cow farts aside).
taking better care of the planet doesn't have to be a political issue and im glad that is less so in the philippines. the US is so divided now that everything is a partisan issue and everyone is labelled based on their viewpoints.
spellchecks. wish you had one. i have never made so many typos in so many posts in just one site 🙂 . well, i hope the messages still come across well.
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Man induce climate change is a fact ! Carbon dioxides are up 38% in teh last 120 yrs…due to fossil fuels. Do you honestly think burning oceans of oil thru emissions would not effect the atmosphere? Just in vehicle emissions alone if you took the exhaust pipes and combined them all together it would be a pipe hundreds of miles wide spewing exhaust 24 / 7 FOR OVER 60 YRS !!
I challenge you to watch the setting sun tonite…see that dark red brown that extends from one edge of the Sun to the sides for 90 degress from center? Exhaust emissions is what it is ! Red brown is the color of hydrocarbons..it does NOT occur as a natural color on the color spectrum. I have been a private pilot for many many years…when I fly and climb out I can visually see the haze layer of red/brown as I climb above it…EVERY SINGLE TIME I FLY! It was not like this 25 yrs ago.
Getting colder? PArt of global warming….as ice packs melt the convective cold has to go somewhere…heat..nor cold does not just disapear..it tries to reach an equlibrium….as in our climate if you have excessive hot or cold it will go to extremes to reach that equilibrium until ..when it finally does reach a balance the average temp will prevail only if left alone…problem is the sun will continue to warm it and our climate will get hotter. Mercury astronaut / Senator John glenn who 25+ yrs later went on teh shuttle was appaled at the change he saw of the clarity of the atmosphere between his space rides ! We are changing the face of this planet this is fact…the question I pose to those who are in denial about global warmings is this: WHAT IF YOU ARE WRONG !!
I'm not a believer of the current global warming theory myself. Based on what I've read, the climate of the earth goes in cycles. You have a 'hot' period, then an ice age, then the weather warms up again, then cools a bit, the continents break up, and so on. And mankind has little or no effect on it.
Plus, we tend to conclude that the earth is warming up based on historical records of the past 100 years, without taking into account how inaccurate some of the measurements made in the early part of the century can be. We also fail to take into account how large urban areas can give artificially high temperature readings, as all the heat is concentrated in one small city.
100 years from now, our descendants will probably look back and say, 'Wow, our grandparents actually believed that man had that big an effect on climate change! How did they come up with that conclusion?'
Hi Bob –
Well, "The View from Up North" is one of belief in natural change. Sometimes man thinks he's so vastly superior that he believes he has an effect on the universe. Our effect is the same as that of an ant. We're only along for the ride! 😆
Wonderfully hot and breezy December here in I.N. 😎
Hi macky – I was thinking about you when I wrote this column! 😆 For me, having different views doesn't mean that there is anything wrong – people can have different views on any subject, and still be friends. Like you say, whether we believe in man-made Global Warming or not, we can all strive to keep our "home" clean. Who wants to go to areas that are polluted, no matter what your political view is. So, while we disagree, I think that there are many things that we do agree on.
By the way, I'll look into a spell check plug in. I had never considered it.
Hi brian – You actually seem kind of militant in your view. Honestly, the whole thing about Global Warming is not a fact, it is a theory. It has yet to be proven. If you poll scientists, a large number of prominent scientists do not subscribe to the THEORY. Anyway, it is obvious that your mind is already set, so there is no reason for us to argue the point.
Hi Rob – Your thinking and mine closely mirror each other. One thing that is indeed a FACT is that temperature has been shown to be cyclical over previous centuries, with heating and cooling occurring naturally. I think (like you) that this is what we are experiencing today.
Personally I am up in the air on this and I consider myself a liberal. Nevertheless, I think promoting it could only be good for the environment as it encourages a more environmentally friendly place to live as an offshoot of policies to prevent global warming getting worse. I don't particulary enjoy breathing pollution emmited from automobiles, factories or any other source so in my opinion limiting or controlling that would be a good thing no matter what the consequences pro or con are for global warming. What I would be most interested in is how many of you on this blog who are the "non believers" of global warming are politically conservative by nature or in the case of US citizens, members of the republican party. I would guess most. That is where the true debate probably lies. And that debate would definetely get bloody here
Hi to Bob and all, I remember the news last night "Frost in Baguio", we could see with ice covered places here in the Philippines. Name it Global Warming or whatever. The increasing number of hurricans, taifunes, sea level icebergs and melting icebergs are as well as the becoming ozone hole signs of climate changes. Theories or not, and I confess, I am not an expert. But in many countries nothing will be done for environment protection. I hate my neighbours here burning rubber, plastic and all this stuff. It's not theory,these are facts for a dying nature and climate changes… 😥
Bob
A few diverse views here and room for everyones opinion, whereas i agree with the cyclical theory of cooling and heating in the worlds climate, i agree with one or two contributors here that climate is being influenced by our industrial behaviour. Consequences? well we are going to find out, any kyoto or son of kyoto agreeement will have little impact and even less impact as world leaders will never agree on this subject, it's too difficult to swallow, and so for me, we are in for a white knuckle ride, good luck to us all
Hi Bob — thinking of meee? while writing this? how sweet 😳
But really, I may be tempted to convince you about my points, statistics and such, and you may feel the same way as well. I've learned long ago that this can be a futile thing, especially in cyberspace. We'll just go round and round in circles trying to one up each other. very tiring and a waste of time.
hell, im pretty sure we disagree on other issues. but that is also the case with friends and family i know.
I've also learned from the better negotiators in capitol hill that the best way to move forward is to find common ground and move from there — or else, the only movement we get is just sideways or backwards. the main words here are "moving forward".
you don't like pollution, i don't either. sticking to or promoting an environment friendly lifestyle and frame of mind works for the both of us. i know you are the type because i remember you mentioning that you hope the electric jeepney catches on for the sake of the environment.
too bad you are in the wrong here though….i kid, i kid. hey, i couldn't help myself 😉
Hi Paul – I'm with you!
Hi Corey – I think that this is no longer a party issue. There are Republicans that believe in man-made Global Warming. When it comes to Parties, though… I think I would have to consider myself party-less these days. I did used to be Republican, but I am very disappointed in the way the party has gone in the past decade or so.
Hi Klaus – Wow! I didn't hear about the frost in Baguio! I do know that there has been frost in Bukidnon back in the early '90s though!
Hi rick b – I agree that any treaties and such would be very hard to put together, and enforcement would be a major problem.
Hi macky – Ha ha… I don't even know where to start!!! 😆
Let me say this to everybody…. I was really hoping that we could look at the way that the Philippines could be affected in terms of Climate Change. So far, I don't think anybody has really addressed that, except for Klaus.
From what I can see already, climate change for the Philippines will be dramatic and severe. Coupled with man made pollution and overfishing, logging and mining this country will be in dire condition in 15 to 20 years. Earthquakes, fish kills, flooding will be common occurence here unlike you have ever seen. This country is poor and will always be poorand that will led to the downfall of the ruling class coupled with these environmental disasters i speak of.You want to talk about a revolution, panic, starvation, well just stick around and see. And if you are a white person you will be dead. I don't worry for myself but for my kids and frankly any of you who don't well just say I told you so. Honestly I would have escape plans.
hi bob — just to make up for not addressing your question.
a very basic rundown: the ice caps (not icebergs) melting affects the salinity, water levels and temperature of the oceans. this means damaged coral reefs and its depleted foodsource (plankton). in effect, this rolls over to the fishing industry that is vital in the country.
the warming trend makes it more susceptible for more typhoons and flooding. this is not good news for the philippines since it lies within the typhoon belt (except davao, of course — hometown plug). so people's lives become more at risk.
the agro industry may take a hit too because global warming leads to more intense weather conditions like heavy rains or longer spells of heat. this creates water shortages in some areas and pest infestations in others. we all know how important farming is in the philippines.
food sources and health. those are two areas that will be affected.
clearly, im not an expert. this is a very basic summation of some of the effects. not trying to debate, just offering an answer to your question.
oh, and it gets hotter. i'd recommend stronger sunblock….and an ark.
While I know little about the subject it seems to me that the climate of the earth has always fluctuated.
The present ice age began 40 million years ago, but within ice ages there are variations called glacial periods and the last one ended only ten thousand years ago when there was then a period of global warming. This global warming took place at a time when man was clearly not advanced enough to have any impact on the climate.
Given this is true clearly today it must be difficult to differentiate between the effects of natural cycles and the effect man is having on the climate.
As to the Philippines specifically it would be nice if all countries got involved in climate change measures but climate change is only one of a series of difficulties which the Philippines faces at the moment. To tackle climate change in a meaningful way clearly needs money and resources which sadly may just not be available in the third world.
Scott
Hi Bob – And they say you dont tackle the "MEATY" issues!!! Hey whatever the effects of climate change, most of us are not going to suffer the full consequence of it in our lifetimes, so maybee we should think of our future generations.. p.s. as a note to Americans , and other countries, dont let your views on this subject become obscured by political leanings
As a post script to my previous blog; The rising water levels on my wifes island are forcing them to build sea walls around the populated areas; but what are the consequences to the remaining low level landowners and farmers? Only time will tell.
82,234,918 bbl/day (billion barrels/day) is what the world population consumer per day in oil. ( you get about 19 gallons of gas per barrel of oil)
now to put "billion' into perspective:
A billion is a difficult number to comprehend,
but one advertising agency did a good job of
putting that figure into some perspective in
one of its releases.
A. A billion seconds ago it was 1959.
B. A billion minutes ago Jesus was alive.
C. A billion hours ago our ancestors were
living in the Stone Age.
D. A billion days ago no-one walked on the earth on two feet.
E. A billion dollars ago was only 8 hours and
20 minutes, at the rate our government is spending it.
http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/ene_oil_con-ene…
Usable atomosphere ( breathable for humans and most animals) is up to 15,000 feet thick..after that you will require oxygen. Thats about 2.7 miles. A rise of carbon dioxide of 38% brings that figure down to about 1.7 miles of usable air. Now add in world wide deforesting.
Our oceans which hold trillions and trillions of tons of disolved co2 will at some point in time reach a saturation point meaning they will no longer absorb this.
I'm not a fanatic about this ,I enjoy a good debate, but you cannot burn this many barrels of oil 24/7 world wide and not have SOME kind of impact.
Food for thought guys. Here in Anchorage, Alaska it is the 7th of December and we still don't have snow in the yard. The temperature this morning when I went to work was 38 F. It is raining at the airport. We are possibly not expected to get snow at least for the next week. This is very strange. We normally have snow in October that last throughout the winter. Friends here have seen the Glaciers receed year after year after year, some are completely gone. I myself kind of like it. We have a little land in Cavite, but I do know that when we buy land there to retire to we will be buying land in the hills or the mountains just in case there is sea level rise. I can drive or walk to the beach, I don't need the ocean taking my house. And if it does get cooler there that's great because I don't take the heat so well.
Hi Bob,
I almost always agree with your comments and ideas. Yet on that subject you're dead wrong. There is a real and well documented 'global warming' situation and more than that… we're really close to the point of 'no return'.
The place where I live had the last time a normal, cold winter in 1995/96. Every next one was much warmer than it used to be for so many years before. And I'm not talking about a 2 or 3 degrees. On average the winters here are warmer probably close to 10 or even 15 c degrees.
Now in Philippines… scientific data is saying that already rice crops are 10% smaller due to temp rise only as little as 2F degrees.
And I've been to Ph. on a couple of occasions. It was hot enough for me. Anything hotter and I'll not want to go there any more. So that's the Country which might be affected more than others. Here in northern Canada we actually welcome warmer winters… there is a 'room' for some warming for sure.
Some parts of US will be affected more than others as we know.
Well, enough of this… Just beeing realistic and informed.
This good, old earth just can't take any more damage from the most destructive species… us humans.
Greetings to all, ted
Hi Corey – Actually, if you look back through the archives you will see that I have always advocated having an escape plan in place. It could be for natural disaster, revolution or whatever reason. I have also talked about keeping in mind where you would want to live if you had to leave here. I don't consider it a strong possibility in our lifetime, but it could happen, and one should be prepared for that.
Hi macky – interesting. I personally do not believe that the melting of ice caps could have a dramatic effect on the salinity of the oceans, but like you, I am no expert.
Hi Scott – I couldn't agree more when it comes to the statement about the Philippines having so many serious issues on it's plate. Climate change is probably small in the realm of things when all the other issues in the Philippines are considered. The reason I say it is small is that the country of the Philippines could probably have little effect on the problem, no matter how much they tried.
Hi Anthony – I agree that within our lifetimes we won't see the full consequences. I also think, though, that in our children's lifetimes this problem will be better known, and may even reverse.
Hi Brian – Thanks for sharing.
Hi Ed – It seems that your area is certainly seeing some dramatic changes!
Hi ted – Thanks for sharing your thoughts. The recent frost on the ground in Baguio might make it more comfortable for you, btw! 😆
Bob,
Yes, there are a number of scientists who oppose the theory of "man-made" global warming. Some of the leading voices were also opposed to the theory that smoking causes lung cancer. Back then they were funded by the Tobacco lobby….now they get their funding from the Oil producers.
Personally, I have more faith in the integrity and motives of those scientists who support the "man-made" theory.
Hi Laurence – I am very open to the fact that you are free to have faith in whatever group of scientists that you choose. I hope that you also are open to my freedom of choice as well. 😉
Hi Bob – I know you are an avid news fan, and you may have noticed a recent change of government in Australia. Basiclly both sides contesting the election were promising pretty much the same policies, but the main differences were the view to climate change, our involvement in Iraq , and our local workplace agreements. The outcome was a majoritry of voters decided it was time for a change. Even if you may be a climate change sceptic, people are concerned that even the best case scenario is that we have to be cautious, because we really dont know for sure what we do today will impact the enviroment tomorrow. I could ramble on for hours on this subject, but I will conclude with; Think of the footprint you leave on this planet as I'm sure this is the only one we have got.
Hi anthony – I'd bet that if we looked at the footprint that you leave and the footprint that I leave, they wouldn't be much different.
Hey totally agee Bob, but if we can make conscious decisions maybee we can keep the world a great place for our kids to inherit.
Hi Anthony – I also agree with you there, and I think that I live my life in a way that preserves the environment to a great extent. None of us are perfect, but I try! 😆
I may be dreaming but what matters most for our overall security? what if we do have to adapt to changes? I think our future is wrapped around our ability to help one another out from one end of the earth to the other. I hope we will help each other as opposed to whack the whities as #18 corey is fortelling. Peace is better! Aint it Bob?
Hi John – I would certainly hope that peace will reign in the Philippines, and harmony between races!
Bob,
Of course I'm open to your ideas….it's just that you've provided no substance to support your view…other than that "some" scientists oppose the idea that global warming is caused by the use of fossil fuels.
Your initial comment was that you wanted to "get a little controversial". Well, perhaps in your next post you could tell us why the earth is flat and the planets revolve around the Earth. I mean, frankly, if you don't accept the science on global warming then you may as well believe in that as well!!
Oh, Laurence – Don't worry, I am not going to call you names or ridicule you for your beliefs. If you are indeed open to other ideas, and want any kind of documentation, it is so easy to find on the web. Plenty of scientific studies dispel the man-made Global Warming Theory (note, it is a theory, not a fact). Just do a google search, you can read for days on it.
Hi Bob
I watched a TV programme some time ago where temperature records were compared from before, during and after the period when there was a no fly policy in force in the states due to 9/11.
It was proved that temperatures rose significantly during this period which proved that if the CO2 in the atmosphere (emissions from aircraft in this case) is reduced then temperatures rise. This gives another problem, global warming from the lack of filtered heat coming off the sun which the CO2 was taking care of.
So it's either global warming from the CO2 and other types of gasses etc which cannot escape and heats up the world, or global warming from the sun. It seems that the damage is done up in the higher spheres and we cannot escape it no matter what. It's a fact of life either way, but it would certainly be better healthwise to have less carbons.
Hi Jack – That is indeed quite interesting! I had not heard about this experiment!