Something is going on in the Philippines (really worldwide, but it affects the Philippines greatly) that could lead to a great deal of unrest. It is something that touches the daily lives of Filipinos. If this is something that would be disrupted, or prices too highly, it could lead to dire consequences for the Nation.
I’m talking about Rice.
A few weeks ago, I read an article in an online newspaper about a recent rice auction. The Philippines, being the world’s biggest importer of rice went to this auction looking to buy 1.5 Million tons of rice for importing over the next 2 months. Unfortunately, the auction did not go the way that the Philippines was hoping – they could only buy about 20% of their rice needs, and at a price that was nearly double what they had paid in previous rice auctions.
This could lead to a crisis here, no doubt about. There are around 80 Million Filipinos, and probably 90% of them eat rice three times per day – breakfast, lunch and dinner. It is their staple of survival. Without rice, they may have to go hungry. The only place in the Philippines where rice is not as widely consumed, to my knowledge, is in the Cebu area. Many in Cebu prefer to eat corn grits as opposed to rice. Of course, a lot of rice is still consumed in Cebu, it is just marginally less than in many other parts of the country.
When I first read the news about the rice auction a few weeks ago, it was not a story that people here were talking about. I told Feyma to go buy a few extra sacks of rice for a backup, and while prices were still low. Now, though, this story is huge here in the Philippines. Rice has already increased in price by around 20 to 25% in those 3 weeks, with common varieties of rice now bringing about P33/kilo in the stores, compared to prices in the mid P20’s only a few weeks ago. President Arroyo keeps saying that there is no Rice shortage, yet prices keep climbing, and even world media is not talking about the potential of a rice shortage worldwide.
Philippine food giants like Jollibee, Chow King and McDonalds, followed by smaller restaurants are now offering “half sized” rice orders with meals in an effort to keep stocks of rice as full as they can, fearing a shortfall in coming months.
The Financial Times (FT) has even set up a whole new section of their website concentrating on Food Prices.
In addition to food chains offering half-sized orders, I believe that other steps can be taken. For example, at many food chains you cannot order food without rice! As an example, if you go to McDonald’s and want to get fried chicken, my MUST get rice with it, no choice. In my case, I don’t eat much rice. If I have Chicken at McDonalds (not often), I will order a chicken meal, which includes rice, and some french fries as a side order. I will eat the chicken with the fries, and I will throw the rice away when I am done. If I was given the chance of ordering the meal with no rice, that is what I would do every time. I have even asked them in the past to hold the rice (they still charge me for it, I understand that), but they refused to do so, meaning one more cup of rice in the garbage can. How inefficient and wasteful is that? And, this is not just at McDonald’s, it happens at many such fast-food chains here, rice MUST be ordered with your meal. I would have to think that if the restaurant chains re-examined their menu, they could make a significant savings on the amount of rice that they are serving without impacting the tastes of their customers.
What would happen in the Philippines if the rice supply dwindles? Frankly, I believe that it could lead to the toppling of the government here. Running out of rice, or seriously curtailing it’s consumption could lead to some very serious consequences. When you mess with people’s stomachs and leave them empty, times can get very serious.
Did you know that in the past 50 years the Philippines has gone from Asia’s top exporter of rice to now being the world’s top importer of rice? What is going wrong in the system? It is something that needs to be addressed!
In 1950 the population of the Philippines was 20 million, in 2004 it was already 78,5 million. Projected estimate for 2025 is 107 million. That's in my humble opinion the main reason why they are now importers of rice. This population growth rate is a recipe for disaster.
I agree with Luc, the population boom is out of control and is a recipie for disaster. Worldwide we are facing a starvation of previously unknown proportions. 80% of the US wheat and corn crop went to biofuels, no doubt the same place that most of the rice went as the biofuel producers offer a higher price. Now we are faced with a worldwide grain shortage. It's quite ridiculous actually that we couldn't see that this is where our thirst for oil alternatives was going to take us. As for the rice Venice texts me almost daily complaining about the price. I told her to lay in a supply but that will only last for a while. Masipag rice that was 20/kilo when I left is now 33/kilo… ouch. Sorry GMA but you better do something about this quickly or the country is going to go down the drain.
does anyone remember the johnny carson -toilet paper run back in the 60's –there was no shortage when johnny made a joke out of a shortage –it created a run all over the usa and you could not find a roll to buy anywhere –i just hope the fear of running out of rice will not start a run on the supplies
Hi Luc – I did a little looking at the site that you linked to. The Philippines and Thailand are countries that are quite similar to each other. Thailand's population is growing faster than the Philippines (2.3% vs. 2.9% growth). Yet, it is Thailand where the Philippines gets the bulk of it's rice from. So, I don't see how population growth can be the cause of the lack of rice production in the Philippines (or the failure to keep up with demand). I personally believe that the problem is a lack of focus on putting this as an important issue. I also believe that as OFW's and other Filipinos overseas have been sending so much money home, the people here (many of them) tend to get into the habit of just relying on that incoming money for their living, instead of working hard to improve the country.
Hi brspiritus – How is Alaska? With the cold weather there, it's surprising that there is no population boom in Alaska – after all, you gotta keep warm! 😆 Seriously, though, as I said to Luc, I don't believe that population growth really accounts for the problem of the lack of production in the Philippines. I noticed in the news yesterday that the Philippines is not going to import Biofuels from Brazil. Two years ago all I heard about was how the coconut was going to be used to make bio-diesel, and it would be the savior of the Philippines. Now it's going to be another import product.
Hi bubba – Hmm… I don't remember that one, it's quite funny, though! I think, though, that you have something there, because I already see and hear about people here in the Philippines stockpiling extra rice. I know that we used to just run through a full sack before buying another sack, but now we keep several extra sacks on hand.
Something is wrong with the % calculations. The population of thailand in 1950 was about the same as the Philippines. In 2004 it was 64 million and the estimated population for 2025 is about 77,5 million. Much more lesser than the Philippines. If you look at the projected numbers for 2025 the population growth will almost stop.
Hi Luc – I'm just going by the information that they publish there. I just went and looked at the CIA World Fact Book about Thailand and they say that the population and growth figures take into account the large number of deaths from AIDS, I bet that has an affect on the population growth. Currently, over 50,000 people per year are perishing from AIDS in Thailand, and in the Philippines that number is only less than 500 people per year. Very interesting!
Here some extra information
Thailand is a bigger country. Production of rice from 1961 to 2006. Production increased in both countries about 3x.
Rough rice production (000 t), by country and geographical region
Philippines (115,831 sq mi)
1961 – 3910
2006 – 15327
Thailand (198,115 sq mi)
1961 – 10150
2006 – 29269
http://www.irri.org/science/ricestat/pdfs2/Table0…
Hi Luc – I can see that this is something that I need to study more….
Philippines actually has less land (512,000 sq. km vs. 298,000 sq. km).
Land that is Irrigated (very necessary for rice), Philippines lags well behind: (50,000 sq. km vs. 15,000 sq. km).
So, the Philippines has roughly 5% of it's land irrigated compared to nearly 10% of Thailand's land being irrigated. It would seem that the Philippines is well behind in this area of infrastructure.
There is a lot of other interesting information in these sources we are looking at too. Electricity consumption and production are VERY interesting. Thailand produces about 2 1/2 times as much electricity as the Philippines does, while having only 71% of the population, and consumption is similar. This would indicate to me that Thailand is more advanced as a society. The Philippines is facing problems in providing adequate power in Mindanao within the next 2 years too, and additional production is not easy.
Thailand also has nearly double the GDP of the Philippines (still despite only 71% of the population).
Very interesting… but getting back on-topic, did you realize that the Philippines (through the IRRI) basically taught Thailand how to improve it's rice yields, and become a powerhouse in the area of rice exports?
Thailand has much better infrastructure no question about it. Compared to the Philippines a much broader economic base, with much more foreign investment. I'm with your thoughts on this one Bob, lack of food will cause a revolution ! Commodities across the board have been going ballistic, Soybeans have skyrocketed. http://money.cnn.com/data/commodities/index.html
heres a link I reference , give a quick daily look.
Scary stuff !!!!!
Hey Bob, Concerning your frustration with McDoanalds for making you throw away the cup of rice, just tell them to hold it anyway. Like you said, they will charge you for it anyway, but you won't have to throw it away and this will actually be one cup added in support of the shortage. I know it isn't right to have to pay for something you do not get, but at least it won't be thrown away and wasted.
Hi Lonnie – Perhaps I didn't write as clearly as I could have. What I said was that I asked them to hold the rice – I agreed to pay for it, but just don't give it to me. They refused to do so! No rice – no meal! Get the rice, or go eat somewhere else was the attitude. I have asked for this many times at McDonald's and at other places too. I don't mind paying for the rice, I just hate throwing it out! 😥
Hi Brian – I will go have a look at that article too. Grain shortages, particularly rice, could have a very big impact on the Philippines in months and years to come.
On a personal note, my wife's family lives in a small town in Ligao in Southern Luzon. Four years ago we bought a 3 Hectare plot of land in Ligao. Two Hectare's of the land was a rice field. Our plan was to let my wife's family farm the land to feed themselves, and also to sell the rice they didn't need to supplement their income. About a year and a half ago a bad typhoon destroyed the water souce to the field, so the field went dry. From what I understand, many rice fields in the area were fed by the same source. So far neither the city, nor the Philippine national government has undetaken any repairs, so the field is just sitting there dry. So much for our plan.
Hi Joe Parisi – Yep, it sounds typical. It is just one more example of so many infrastructure projects that go undone for years or even decades. Yet, if projects like this were completed, it would yield more rice, more of other crops, better living in the Philippines. It's really a shame!
Hi Bob,
Seems like blaming population growth is a handy excuse for government and lay persons' problems these days. I'd say population has something to do with it – more precisely, what the population does.
– Thousands of hectares of prime rice fields are now developments.
– Thousands of farmers have hung up their tools and are looking into other ways to more profitably chase the pera. (Zamboanga in recent days has learned of their famers-flight problems.)
– Thousands of servings of rice are discarded daily (as you point out) when a consumer just doesn't want rice.
Now toss in the population's mistrust of Chinese merchants and rumors of hoarding, and social unrest isn't too far off. This recent article in the Asian Time Online plays to that fear. 😉
Hi Paul – I'm with you, I don't think Population growth is the problem. There are lots of things that can and should be done to increase rice production here in the Philippines.
Thanks for sharing that article!
Hi Bob, Also, a lot of the shortages are blamed on climate change – too much rain here, not enought there. This article shows that it is a worldwide shortage.
PS This is not one of your articles! 🙂
Hi Bob! I think that more than any political dispute, a problem with rice hits Filipinos to the bones. I was hearing my helpers' conversations last week and it seems a truly troubling situation for them. For some families, it doesn't matter that they barely have any ulam or dish or viand for as long as they have rice!
I believe also that this rice crisis has made the foodservice industry look at their rice serving differently. I am currently revising a menu for a restaurant here in Gensan and we had to adjust rice prices twice already.
At the same time, other Filipinos are looking at it as an opportunity to pursue their weight reduction diets! Eat as little rice as you can!
in the 60s, neighbors like vietnam & thailand were sending their people to study our agro production in UPLB. we were leaders then (and not just in the rice exports).
the talk of "how much ahead we were in the 60s" has been going on since i was a kid. that and occasional rice hoarding every few years (almost like a recession cycle) — throw in a maritime disaster every 2 years & seasonal coup talk.
this is a serious issue, but not surprising. so many frustrating problems that never seem to be fixed. isn't it a shame that we are now surprised only when things are done efficiently? people are going hungry. its a survival issue. the disparity of wealth is even more appalling (and that says something).
and guess what? we pinoys are programmed to expect the worse is ALWAYS yet to come.
btw, i do think luc has a point with the population thing, but that is only one of many factors.
we could be such a great nation if only …. oh, i shouldn't even start.
cathy has an excellent point. this is also a symbolic issue. we can talk about electoral fraud or bribed govt deals. that's part of life, ho-hum. but rice? that does hit pinoys to the bones.
Hi John in Austria – I have considered climate change as a factor myself. In thinking it over, though, my conclusion is that it is not really a factor here in the Philippines, because I simply don't think the climate here has changed that much as of now. Who knows, though…
Hi Cathy – I agree that a lack of rice does hit Filipinos right to the bones, and that is why I think that such a shortage or very high prices could lead to big problems for the government of the country. A question – when you do your work with the restaurants that you consult, do you take into account that some customers don't want any rice? Especially foreigners might prefer pasta or potatoes as their staple rather than rice. From what I see from restaurants in the Philippines, though, it is often quite difficult to order something with no rice.
Hi Macky – Haven't heard from you in a while! I hope all is going well. Yes, I also hear talk from old timers about how the Philippines was the leader of Asia back in the 60's and prior to that. As I am sure that you already know (but other readers may not) here in Davao, back before WW2 many wealthy people here had Japanese people working for them in their farms, house work, etc. So, it's been quite a change in the past half of a century. I would love to see the Philippines regain those glory years, get back on it's feet and be the strong Republic that President Arroyo always says she will bring back. So far, sadly, I haven't seen any sign of such a return of the glory days, though.
Bob:
When talking with my fiancee a few months back about developing her land in Cagayan, she told me that her family was having trouble hiring people to work in the paddy fields. It is hard work and the local people tend to leave the province to work for more money in Manila. That is why we decided to use the land for prawns and timber, rather than rice. The only fields remaining are to feed the family and sell locally any surplus. It goes back to supply and demand, whether that demand is real or artificial.
Hi John Miele – Yes, I believe that. It is hard to find employees here, a lot of people just don't want to work, IMHO. It makes me sad to say that, but I really believe it. Too much reliance on money being sent back from overseas workers, and not enough work ethic to make yourself do it. Of course, a big part of the problem is that so many employers do not treat their employees well, pay very low wages, etc. The problems are many, but a solution needs to be found!
Hey Bob,
To me it seems that since I was there (1984) the RP Government has put the focus on attracting Foreign money, Business,Retirees Remittances etc, that the RP has become more and more like the US, a nation of Consumers not producers.
That is fine if you are fortunate enough to benefit from all the Foreign $ that comes into the RP. But it drives up the cost of living there, so that if you are not connected to the Foreign $ you will suffer a depressed standard of living. Just my 2 cents
I recall reading stories on the rice shortage when I was in the Philippines a two weeks ago. I know how important rice is to the people here, I was eating rice for breakfast, lunch and dinner LOL. Rice to the Asians is like bread to the Europeans, its a "filler". When there is not much on offer, then rice is the go. The Philippine Star on March the 20th reported that the Government would approach fast food chains to " start offering half portions of rice to discourage people from over ordering". But this is like saying if people don't have bread to eat then they should eat cake. Hmmm sounds like a revolution is about to occur. Also I believe a lot of rice is wasted and given to the animals for food. I recall our dogs were so bored with eating rice every day, they were happy to leave it to the chickens. The problem is very simple, over population and under supply of rice, two issues that future Philippine Presidents will need to address if they want a happy term in office. Production needs to be increased and population cannot be left unchecked, maybe a some birth control, family planning and a note to the Pope may help relieve any future suffering.
Someone with a lot of money is making more money importing rice.Its all a big con.They do the same with oil,spread rumors that there is going to be a shortfall and "HEY" thats another 10 million made 😐
Hi Bob, From what I just read in your column and in the comments from your readers it does look some what precarious for the government there if rice is not available. I have to say this – if the government is incapable of repairing infrastructure, from planning for food staples then maybe this government should be replaced. You or someone made a great point about overseas workers sending money home. Lets call that an entitlement. When people rely on entitlements they quit relying on themselves-you could be on to something there. I also read recently that China had severe food shortages-so I would say its a larger problem than just the Philippines. Ron
Hi Bob,
I just wonder if there are any gov't funded learning facilities that would educate the Filipino people that there's pride in farming. And, working for a living and growing your own food is nothing to be ashamed of. Waiting for handouts from relatives working 7 days a week abroad is not the way to live their lives.
This revolutionary act will definitely occur, not only in the Philippines but globally – if people will continue to blame on others rather than taking resposibilty for their own life.
Hi Bob! The consideration that there are people who do not prefer rice is existent in Manila but in gensan, none. Just rice.
Again it goes back to the catholic church and the lack of promoting condom use. re high population
They will have to switch to eating potatoe although i guess that takes up more gas to cook 🙁
Is brown rice readily available in Davao? i use to eat like a filipino there and have white rice 3 times a day but im into brown rice more these days as white rice seems just to sit in my tummy.
High rice prices good incentive to start rice farming again. can a foreigner rent land to grow rice there?
Hi Neal in Ri – I would tend to agree with you on the things you said.
Hi Peter – I would agree that a lot of rice is wasted.
Hi john.j. – I just don't agree with that. A lot of people say that whenever any item gets into short supply – "somebody is manipulating the item to make more money." I just don't think that is the case. Either of us could be right, though. 😉
Hi Ron LaFleur – Ah, I never thought of it, but you are right – OFW remittances are basically a non-governmental entitlement program!
Hi MarcelinaWW – I am not aware of any such Government funded educational programs to teach the people about farming and such. It sounds like something that would be good work for an NGO too.
Hi Cathy – I wonder why? It would be best to make the menu friendly for all customers, even those who are not big rice eaters! 🙂
Hi graham – Brown rice is a rarity, not something that you can easily find. Farming for a foreigner? Sure, I think that would be legal as long as you just rent the land! 😆
Update – the self-fullfilling prophesy continues 😉
Just like the TP shortage that Bubba mentioned in #3, hoarding of rice (real or perceived) will make the news and stimulate others to follow suit. Note Madam President's surprise inspection reported by the Philippine Daily Inquirer
Funny how the article didn't mention any consequences, and even GMA said that it wasn't a raid but merely an inspection and observation of how government agencies are conducting inspections!
BTW, there was a TP shortage among Pacific islands in the early 70s caused by rumored inventory damages due to typhoons. I was in Okinawa, and went without for 2 weeks. No one would ship any to us as they feared early depletion of their supply! 😆
Hi Paul – I read that article yesterday about the Presidential inspection and such. Very interesting!
Someone dropped the ball in a serious way. I pulled up an article on Bloomberg the other day from back in 2006. It was talking about the coming rice shortage in Asia and that in 2 to 3 years time, the price of rice would more than double. The fact that rice was going to increase in price substantially should have been common knowledge among those coming up with food security policy.
Hi McKenzie – Indeed the way this problem has been handled you would think that it was unheard of until 3 weeks ago!
I noticed the same thing back on the March 13th report and I figured it was a good time to pick up some extra rice. No way we can store enough to not have to deal with the situation so I told my wife to find alternatives. The current crisis is being used by politicians and frankly it will just leave the poor poorer and hungrier.
And what's with Gloria going out on tour in a sleeveless shirt? Our wives can't go into a government office wearing the clothes she is wearing on her tour of warehouses.
Aside from the problems mentioned, another big problem in farming (and among most other sectors in the Philippines) is the shameful lack of efficiency. If you'll look at how rice farming is done in the country, one would scratch their head wondering why in the 21st century is rice still being farmed "manually" using a carabao/buffalo driven plow when farm machinery is readily available? This is the main reason why Thailand became the leading rice exporter as they can produce much more rice in a given land area unlike The Philippines with it's archaic methods. Sure such machinery is expensive, but if the government is serious about achieving food security, assisting farmers in modernizing their farming methods will go a long way in assuring a steady supply of rice and other crops.
Hi Bob:
I can see history repeating itself. I remember right after Marcos declared martial law in 1972, there was a huge rice shortage in the country. There was a quota per family(a few kilos per family/week)-you can't find rice in stores-to the point where people, my Mom included would line up for hours at Plaza Miranda in Quiapo waiting to buy her share for our family. Army trucks were used as stalls and the armed soldiers manned them. Very intimidating scenario! I can't recall how long it lasted but such predicament forced her to purchase her own rice field when the opportunity came(within 2 yrs) and swore never to go through such hardship ever again. Of course, just as mentioned by the other readers above, you have to build your irrigation system to supply the much needed water, which my Mom did slowly over the years, as she can afford it.
Incidentally, I just read an article yesterday warning us of shortage of supply and price increase in the next week or so. This coming from T & T Supermarket(Canada's biggest oriental store) and from other Asian merchants. Apparently, it's not only happening in the Far East but also being felt in Sout East Asia e.g. India, Pakistan, etc. Causes given were bad weather, high fuel prices, high cost of fertilizer and of course, it has a domino effect as we all know.
What bothers me now is how much more the poor people will be able to survive? They can eat rice with just patis or salt and get away without any fish/meat with their meal but not rice?
Hi McKenzie – Like you, we have stocked up a bit. Like you say, though, no way to buy enough to ride out the potential crisis, though.
Hi Mel – Very true, farming is in desperate need of modernization! Bring it at least into the 20th Century!
Hi Veechee – I didn't know about that rice shortage under Marcos! It sounds terrible, though. I Hope that it will be avoided this time around.
Hi Bob.
I have been reading this collumn with great interest, and today in our local tv-broadcast there was an issue from Haiti, where the people demonstraded against the government. Foodprices have risen 40% over the last 12 month, causing som people to eat mudcackes mixed with salt and coockingoil. Not good. So your headline is very relevant.
Hi Bob.
May I point your att. to this website.
http://www.mysinchew.com/node/9568
Hi Preben Christensen – Thanks for leaving your comments. Indeed, this is a crisis that is hitting worldwide. It would seem, though that the poor people of the world like here in the Philippines and in Haiti are the hardest hit when something like this happens. Eating mudcakes? I hope it never comes to that here! 😥
Hi Bob,Rather than add further comment on the rice problem,i thought readers may like to know the very latest info regarding rice in the Phils and other foods worldwide.Many pages of info have just been released by BBC world news.Check out, http://www.bbc.co.uk/costoffood these articles put everything in perspective regarding world food prices/shortages,regards,chas.
Hi chas – Thanks for passing along that link. It seems that food security and pricing is a major issue these days. In addition to the BBC, I had also found a similar site through the Financial Times. This is an issue that will become more and more prominent as time goes by, I believe.