The Government of the Philippines finds itself in a quagmire these days. What is a quagmire? Well, the definition of a quagmire is a difficult, precarious or entrapping situation. Unfortunately, that is where the Government of the Philippines sits at this time when it comes to the situation in Mindanao. Of course, as I often say, the great majority of the Island of Mindanao is a safe place, but in selected areas, the island is very dangerous. Right now, the dangers are amplified.
After years of relative quiet on the kidnapping front, Mindanao has once again become a hot spot for kidnapping. It seems that people of all kinds are being kidnapped now too. Foreigners, Filipinos, even people of relatively little means.
The culprits when it comes to the recent spate of kidnappings are once again the Abu Sayyaf Group. You may remember some time back I wrote a series of articles about “The Dangers that Lurk” and said at that time that the Abu Sayyaf were the premier serious threat in the Philippines. Unfortunately, my words are proving themselves to be true again.
The Abu Sayyaf is a group of terrorists who has been active for a little over 20 years now, but has become an extreme threat in the past decade or so. The big-time threat from the Abu Sayyaf started back at the end of the 1990’s when they kidnappend a large group of people, mostly foreigners, who were staying at a diving resort in Sandakan, Malaysia, and then took the kidnappees to Mindanao and held them for months. This was the first time that the Abu Sayyaf gained a huge payoff in exchange for hostages. Since then, there have been a number of kidnappings engineered by the Abu Sayyaf Group against foreigners and Filipinos alike. Many of these kidnappings have resulted in payments of millions of dollars to the terrorist group.
You know, when you give payments to terrorists in exchange for hostages, it only leads to additional hostage taking incidents whenever more money is needed by the terrorists. And, of course, that is what has happened with the Abu Sayyaf. In recent years, the Philippine Government, with assistance from the US Government had gotten to the point where the Abu Sayyaf had been nearly eliminated. The group’s head had been killed several times over, only to be replaced continually be new leaders. There was a point when the Philippine government had said that the Abu Sayyaf Group had been whittled down to less than 100 people, and that they would be eliminated within months. The threat of kidnapping by the Abu Sayyaf had been virtually wiped out, with the group too busy running from troops to ensure it’s own survival, and without enough resources to mount a serious kidnapping effort.
However, in 2009, those days of having the Abu Sayyaf on the ropes and unable to take much action seem to be gone. Instead, the Abu Sayyaf has carried out a number of kidnappings in Mindanao this year. The most serious incident of kidnapping has been the case of three workers of the International Committee of the Red Cross who were ambushed and taken captive in Sulu in January. The ICRC hostages include one Filipina and two European men. The Abu Sayyaf group has now issued a deadline that one of the Red Cross hostages will be beheaded on either March 30 (today) or March 31 (the deadline date varies depending on the report) if the Philippine Government does not move troops away from the area where the Abu Sayyaf is holding it’s hostages. In addition to the ICRC hostages, the Abu Sayyaf independently holds at least three other hostages in Basilan Province, three Filipino teachers who were kidnapped in Zamboanga City in February. Over the past weekend, there were widespread reports that one of the kidnapped teachers had died in captivity, although the Abu Sayyaf denies this.
So, there is a quagmire. What is the Philippine Government to do? If they pull troops back, they are basically relinquishing to demands of the terrorists and giving them free reign of the area in Sulu where they are holding hostages. If they don’t pull back, one of the ICRC hostages may be beheaded. The threat of beheading should not be taken lightly, as the Abu Sayyaf has beheaded many captives in the past, and it seems to be their favorite way of showing they are serious.
Honestly, the Philippine Government has had plenty of opportunity to kill the beast called the Abu Sayyaf over the years. Unfortunately, they always play the same game that they play in almost every problem – when they have the beast on the ropes, they let up on it and focus on other issues instead of finishing off the problem.
At this point, in my view, there is only one thing that the Philippine Government can do, and that is an all out war against the Abu Sayyaf. If the AFP (Armed Forces of the Philippines) cannot handle the problem, I am sure that the United States would be more than happy to assist in the elimination of the Abu Sayyaf.
But, if the Government goes forward with an all out attack on the group, won’t it result in the death of the ICRC captives? It likely will, and I feel bad about that, but it’s time to show some backbone. Get serious, once and for all. The fact is that these ICRC workers were warned not to go to to Sulu without military protection, and they refused it. So, they bear some of the fault for their situation. If the hostages die in the attack, there is nobody to blame except the Abu Sayyaf who is lawless and frankly sickening.
It’s time now to get serious. The government of the Philippines cannot back down and basically show terrorists that Mindanao is up for grabs by competing terrorist groups. The time to end lawlessness is now. Let’s get on with it.
you must have wrote this before the news that the leaders that be decided to pull back the troops in exchange for the release of one of the the hostages ?
Hi Tommy – That deal never happened. The Abu Sayyaf never followed through on it.
Bob,
I totally agree with you, but,and I would at least like to know that the USA could at least send the US Navy to the area as well. As well as Special Forces to help eliminate this problem. To be honest with you, I have no idea of the terrain, and the conditions of the area.
Also, I am not sure of what our relations are with Malaysia in the areas the MILF are allowed to operate in that country as well..these places would also need to be dealt with..I know we have "free trade" with Malaysia..so I would think the government there should be very co-operative with the USA.
Your right, it is time to get rid of this problem once and for all, and I know there will be some innocents people killed in the process, and I don't hope for that. Of course I say this without any of my family not being there and in harms way.
All I can do is pray that someone there comes up with a good solution to this problem, and very soon.
salamat kaayo,
Danny
i guess it is an american thing–"GET ER DONE"–no truer words have been spoken–we need some of that here also
Hi Danny – that is rough terrain down there in that area. The problem is that the Philippines is very hesitant to allow US Troops to enter any kind of battle here. It is actually unconstitutional to do so.
Hi james – i suppose that is true.
Bob, I am not so sure that our new administration is as aggressive as the Bush administration. I am sure we would provide intelligence, training, and the necessary equipment but this is a Filipino military requirment. I personally feel that this resurgence has its strength in the unknown resolve of the new President. It sounds arrogant to suggest that our government has so much or so little influence but I think there is reality in that arrogance. My concern is for Mindanao and its long term stability-just not sure its there. I recently read about some gentleman associated with these groups living openly in Davao with his armed guards basically breaking every law that exists in Davao with no repercussions. If that is true then I would think that is the template for the future. I don't know these are just my thoughts.
Hi Bob,
Bob, I think if the MILF were to start bombing(God forbid) Manila, and threatening the people that live there, they would decide very quickly to make it constitutional, and accept our help or any other NATO nations help. Not just us, the UK, Dutch, and Germans among other countries are very good at battling terrorist these days.
I believe the US 10th Mountain Division is trained in this type of fighting….especially for fighting in Afghanistan, but also trained for tropical areas as well, just not use to playing hide and seek too much.
I know is not an easy task, I just read an old article the other day, about one of the last Japanese hold outs from World War II. On the island of Lubang, just west of Manila Bay, the last Japanese was captured in 1972, even though the local population knew they were there, I don't think there was ever a large search for them, militarily. It was tough to get one man out of the jungles, would be hard to get over a 200 out of the hills. Just depends on the size of the force, and how determined they are.
http://history1900s.about.com/od/worldwarii/a/sol…
(I don't usually put links to websites in here, but I thought this was very interesting.)
Take care now,
Danny
As you have commented many times Bob, there are plenty of places in Mindanao to live and visit and then there are those best to avoid. Those unfortunate victems should have consulted with " Mindanao Bob " first !
I wonder how many have had the thought, if some of the " difficulties " of Mindanao could be settled on a permanent basis there might be plenty of jobs and the money that goes with it for nearly everyone !
Mindanao could be very competitive with many other world class resort areas such as Monte Carlo, Las Vegas, The Riveara, The Caribean, and the list could go on and on . Build some extravagant Beach resorts on existing waterfront or make some new beaches. Build lavish hotel casinos and other major attractions. Major International Airports in more than one area of the island and a majority of those that live there could be Rockin' their way to the Bank !
Unfortunately it could take a few years to eradicate a lot of the bad press and other matters preventing this kind of thing right now.
It kind of reminds me of New York City in a way ( same applies to many other major cities ) where would you send tourists or your friends that wanted to visit ? Would you send them to the touristy areas of Manhattan ( really decent place in recent years ) OR would you want them to hang out in the " South Bronx " ( not a good place and not safe ) .
In some ways I feel sorry for the victems in this recent incedent but this is the first I have read that they were for-warned. They should have consulted with " Mindanao Bob " first !
To reiterate this statement about US forces in Mindianao…I am in the US forces and I will tell you for a fact that we are not allowed to engage in combat there. There have even been times that our forces have been located in a base that was getting mortared. Even then, we were not allowed to ”GET ER DONE” as James put it. We are merely there to train the Filipino Army and to provide aid to the area….That is all!! You can believe me if you want, I know there are many who think the US is heavily engaged in the area and will not believe anyone who says otherwise. I have seen it so much in the posters all over down there spreading these lies.
Bob I am sorry. I did not mean to say that man was a member of Abu Sayyaf. He is apparently a member of one of the groups that are on Mindanao. Sorry for the confusion.
Hi Bob,
The scenario you have not canvassed is that the Philippines military does not want the militants totally eliminated. Their continued existence brings various forms of aid from the US and others as well as keeping the profile of the military leaders high. If the miltants were eliminated how important would the tin soldiers be?
things are not always as they seem.
WOW i have been following this on Yahoo Ph. and is this not current ?
"Philstar.com – Sunday, March 29ZAMBOANGA CITY, Philippines – The government has agreed to withdraw troops from a jungle area in Indanan, Sulu in a bid to save three kidnapped Red Cross workers threatened with beheading."
Every time the Government looks like it's getting the upper hand, it allows the enemy to call a time out, to get their stuff in order. This is not just a one time thing. It's been done over and over. Where do these rules come from ? It's about the stupidest that I've ever seen.
Hi Michael – I tried to kind of imply some things. There are certain things that are not wise to say for a foreigner living in a foreign country. The threat of deportation is always something that must be kept in mind. I can't really say everything explicitly, I hope you understand.
I general you cannot negotiate with fanatics, you can only exterminate them and I feel applys to all terrorist. I agree with yor position on the Red Cross workers…knowing going into harms way they bear some of he brunt. Unfortunatly there is no cure for stupidity even if with good intentions.Insofar as USA military goes it is a hot spot as u say, sadly we have the capability via UAV's to locate small armed bands,individuals ect in any type of enviroment and in most weather conditions in very short peroids of time, seems to me if they asked for"military advisors" withthis capability we could find them.
If you recall the Burmans (married missionary couple) were kidnapped by them a few years back..12months dragged thru the jungle. When the RP military finally found them they indiscriminatly opened fire on anything that moved…killing Mr. Burman by friendly fire.
Hi Michael – good observation. 😉
I believe foreign forces have been involved in actions in the past. A friend of mine who lived in the Philippines for a number of years met Australian SAS soldiers after the Bali bombing who told him they were there for covert operations in Mindanao. Their speciality is being inserted in small groups in hostile areas, living off the land and finding and destroying targets themselves or calling in air strikes on targets.
Maybe I will have to move back to the city . .I guess I should ask some of my relatives about the condition in the mountain areas .. I don't need a new hair cut that's to low …Phil n Jess
Hi Michael – I would personally be surprised if foreign forces have really seen action here.
Hi Phil – There should be no problems with Abu Sayyaf up where your family is (near Ginoog, right?). Maybe some NPA up there, though.
Hi Garrett – I didn't really think you were implying it was me, but I like to clarify that kind of thing so that readers don't get the wrong idea.
I heard a rumor from a reliable person that special ops had pinoy american soldiers in feild…under the "advisement role". Would'nt suprise me..
I believe they need to go all out against the ASG, though even doing that may not be completely successful. The ASG does get help from the MILF or at the very least seek safety within
MILF areas. People need to take responsibility where they travel and need to use some common when traveling into dangerous areas. I do believe the greater danger for Mindanao is the MILF. The ASG while dangerous can be controlled from expanding their power base from Basilan and Jolo. The MILF is much powerdul in terms of manpower and territory. Recent fighting has killed around 30 people on both sides.
I believe from the perspective of the government, you have a small military of around 120,000 people. You have to deal with NPA which operates on most of the islands. The MILF which can erupt in large scale fighting due to the breakdown of the doomed peace talks. I think the ASG is not seen as a huge threat since they have been weakened as you said. If the ASG does get defeated there will still be kidnappings because it is a great money maker for criminals.
Hi Bob
This group seems to be small compared to other groups so they shouldn't be hard to eliminate. Maybe the Philippine Government believes as the current US Administration that "a good crisis should never be wasted"
I really feel there is a solution not so far away as the leadership of the Philippines seems to think, but I don't feel we are heading for it with the present course. Interesting to see how many "hawkish" comments I see … many of them likely written by folks who never saw military service … I spent 38 years watching various countries, an participating, sometimes with a weapon on my shoulder, in ill-advised the US attempting to resolve diplomatic issues via military force and I can testify it doesn't work. More guns, men, ordnance expended will not bring this hundreds of years old issue to any successful conclusion.
I see a need for the government in Manila (where the average person understands very little of the issues involved and appears to care less, as long as the troublemakers to go away) to recognize that the issues here are much broader.
Thias would be an excellent opportunity to bring in a third-party negotiator who has patience, forbearance and _no_ties_to_Manila_or_Washington. The idea of sending a retired PAF general as a negotiator is such 'wrong thinking' it's hard for me to comprehend … whether done from arrogance or ignorance the chances for success are nil.
A month or so back, I watched (and I know you watched some as well) what could have been an excellent ABS-CBN sponsored conference in Davao entitled 'Mindanao, the Way Forward'. Sadly, virtually every speaker filled his or her time slot with accusations, recriminations and recitals of "what you did to us in 1995", "what this organization lied about in 2002", "how so and so was betrayed in 2003" and so on and so forth.
It was sad, and it was futile, especially since the moderators made no credible efforts to even try to keep the speakers 'on point'. I don't know the long term answer, but I do know this, shooting people won't fix it, nor will focusing on the past, as both side (or more accurately all 15 or 20 sides, becuase there are way more than two unified forces in contention here) spend their time rehashing the past with no vison for the future.
Bob,
I agree with you totally! It's past the time to take-the-bull-by- the-horns. The ASG needs to be hammered! As long as they get money in exchange for hostages, they will continue taking hostages! It will never end. I feel that the AFP doesn't have the ability to pull off the job. I think there are too many corrupt people in the government and in the military. The ASG gets some of their arms from the AFP! They would never use the US military to do the job, their constitution forbids it. Sadly, I think this sickening cycle will continue.
My wife and I go to Northern Mindanao (Surigao) and Southern Mindanao (Pagadian)every year. I love Mindanao and the people. It makes my heart ache to see the poverty there when there is so much potential on Mindanao. Sadly, terrorist groups only play a small role in all that is wrong with the Philippines. They need to deal with corruption first and then handle the rest. Unfortunatly, corruption is so engrained in the culture it will take generations to change it. Like I said, I absolutely love the Philippines. I live for the three week vacation we take every year. I can't get enough of the Philippines! I just hope and pray that the election next year will be the start of change in a positive way. The people need it! This is my opinion.
I want to thank you Bob for bringing this topic up.
I like what Dave Starr wrote and also Bob's reply to his post and I agree that the Abu Sayyaf may only understand bullets where an organization like the MILF or NPA would be more likely to negotiate since they are political in nature.
I have been doing a little research on these issues since anytime I mention to friends or family about the Phils they always mention terrorism or beheadings since there have been a few specials on cable tv about the Abu Sayyaf. I guess I have made it my duty to let them know that is not what the Phils is all about and that most of these organizations are concentrated in small areas for the most part.
Are there any types of threats such as these in the province of Negros Occidental? I haven't found much online so I am not sure.
Hi Bob
Sorry to get my surrounings wrong about Jolo and Sulu. I do however disagree with you how many kidnappings the ASG commit compared the K&R gangs. Sometimes they go unreported, I know of one myself. I would think there are more kidnappings in Metro Manila then ones committed by the ASG. I dont want to downplay how dangerous the ASG are and that they exist only to commit kidnappings and terrorism. I believe the MILF is more dangerous even if they do have a political agenda/beef with the government. Like the 30 people (MILF and military) killed during the fighting last week or the 100 or so civilians killed when the peace talks broke down last year. Im sure if you asked Filipinos in Western Mindanao (at least the Christians) they would say that the MILF pose a bigger threat to their security then the ASG.
This is a subject very dear to me. I hope these workers lives are spared. Now on to the subject of Mindanao and the Philippines in general.
Things in the Philippines will NOT change for the better until the people stand up and say enough is enough. The people of the Philippines are far too laid back. Most of them just stand back and almost ignore what is going on in their country or the world.
Now this mainly happens because they are so busy barely getting by from day to day…but this "Bahala Na" behavior MUST change.
I have been to the Philippines five times in the last 14 months and stayed for months at a time. I love the Philippines and I have spent most of my time in Mindanao.
None of us, foreigners or filipinos themselves, do the country of the Philippines any favor by looking the other way. The Philippines is a really messed up country and NOTHING is going to change until the filipinos say enough is enough!
As for military action….it NEEDS to take place and take place soon. I was in the Marine Corps and I have no doubt that the Marines, along with filipino Marines, can take care of this problem if the government just wants it done.
At some point you need to say NO MORE. NO MORE. Destroy the problem. Get rid of the problem. NO MORE! And the filipino people need to start expecting a lot more. NO MORE just saying "What will be will be", that is totally ridiculous.
The Philippines can be a great ally of America…but we (America) need to start putting a LOT more pressure on the government to get things straight and the filipino people need to not just expect more but DEMAND MORE.
The absolute laid back, non chalant (sic?) behavior of the filipino people is what has led to so many problems. I see it every day with my fiance and her family, and I see it almost every day with the average filipino…many who seem to not give a damn about too many things.
That may sound harsh, but it is what I and many of my American friends that have been there and lived there have seen. Enough is enough. People need to start speaking out and stop being worried about hurting peoples feelings.
Hey Bob, I believe Michael is correct about Australian (Oz) SAS "helping out" the PRA around Jolo and Sulu areas. This was publicised in a 4 or 5 line news report on the front page of "The Weekend Australian" newspaper (large circulation in Oz)about 2 or maybe 3 yrs ago. I was very surprised to read about this 'coalition', not because of the 'co-operative training aspect' but because the SAS generally keep their location/intel very close to their chest – until well after the event/task has been completed/ceased, so as to prevent compromise. Unsure of current Ops out of camp navaro, but my g/friend of 4 yrs from Basilan has occasionally worked on Jolo and provided disturbing news of events witnessed 1st hand when she was there briefly on 3 occasions over the past 2 years. She refuses to go back there – for obvious reasons. Cheers, see you in davao soon 🙂
Hi Bob – Rice bowl politics, if you ask me: every move made to increase the amount of rice in one's bowl. 😯
Then, again, no one asked me! 😆
Agreed about the government not wanting to end the fighting because that would end aid. I remember when I was deployed there and there was a weapons cash taking, All the serial numbers were recorded and turned over to the Philippine Marines. Low and behold 3 months later the same weapons were seized from a armed group of militants who surrendered.
Ever notice how they seem to have the same weapons as the PI military and they new??? or Even more well equipped, Those are US military m16 A-2's with 203 grenade launchers in Bobs pics, Not AK-47's folks. If the Generals would stop selling them arms then the conflict would end. Seriously how can you not defeat, disarm and cut off supplies to a group on a island? This frustrated many of us who were there.
Don't be surprise to see some of those new crew served weapons that the military has ordered in the hand of militant. It's just how the game is played there.
OK whewww ..Yea you right Bob , just rebels here and they are friendly with Jess's uncle so no problems .. 🙂 Phil n Jess
Hi Bob,
Just want to frankly say that I think there's no need for foreign forces intervention in the internal problem here in the Philippines like the one that we are dealing now (the beast abus, one of those though). The Phil govt. is capable enough in solving this. The only problem is that it lacks political will to do so and there's a lot of politicizing and grand standing among the leaders of this country. If they are just professional enough and united for the common good am sure this problem has already been resolve long time ago. this is not to discredit the powerful forces from other powerful countries as a comment to one message that it is better for US to engage the battle. I'd like think this way that letting this thing to happen would complicate the situation and we Filipinos will be at a lossing end. Yes, this armies are well decorated by I dont think this will apply to the Phil jungle. Its easy to imagine but to do is another story. So, please foreign forces just help our government in shaping a new culture not by engaging into combat for it may be a regret not just to the Filipinos but on your part. Imagine Vietnam, Afghan and Iraq, is there any victory?
Hello Juan dela Cruz – I don't normally allow anonymous comments, especially using a fake e-mail address like you are doing here, but I decided to make an exception this time.
I find it funny that you boldly tell me that the Philippines doesn't need help on this issue and can handle it all alone. Then you go on for the rest of your comment and tell me why the Philippines can't get the job done! What it is – they can do it, or they can't? Well, since this is a 20 year old problem, and a lot of Filipinos and Foreigners are getting kidnapped, it would seem that the Philippines has already demonstrated that they can't get it done. Hell, a Filipino man was beheaded by the ASG just last week. I bet that his family would welcome whatever it would take to wipe out the ASG.
Hi Bob,
hello kumusta..just like to share .. ASG & MILF are one, their members are relatives, the groups share camps, logistiics, etc.
there already have been incidents that the US assistance is almost going nowhere – when a drone positively id'd the location of band of ASG , and the Philippine Marines were notified, but strangely, didn't acted on the intel report..they could have called in an strike on the area, but they didn't…also everyone might already forgotten the incident where the ASG's escaped from a hospital with hostages..
http://blogs.gmanews.tv/sidetrip/blog/index.php?/…
there's a line that says in the article:
"There are only two possible explanations for what may be the biggest failure in Philippine military history: monumental treason or monumental incompetence."
and i think its treason.
in this age where anybody from anywhere can be traced, tracked , and eliminated, i don't believe in difficult terrain anymore, specially the civilians in the area are not that supportive of the ASG, how come they have become as hard as the Talibans to eliminate?
Bob, i really like to see the US forces in Jolo ROE changed, with of course approval from Manila..( i think this is doable.. )
maybe allowing some assualt capabilties , like arming the drones,,etc.. assualt special ops..etc. – that would be a hands-on training would like to me..there would be casualties yes..but it can change the outcome of some battles- (without politicking this time) because i'm really doubting the Philippine Military brass intentions in Jolo and their treatment of this problem.
Mr Bob is damn right about Mindanao!
This is a heart broken story…
http://www.philstar.com/Article.aspx?articleId=526583&publicationSubCategoryId=63
More pictures can be found at:
http://news.singtao.ca/vancouver/2009-11-24/headline1259057668d2168924.html